CCAP

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc.

33
Fundamentals47/ 100
Valuation24/ 100
Upside potential54/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

CCAP trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS has the edge over CCAP overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

CCAP Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Healthy
N/A
N/A

CCAP's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CCAP.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

CCAP PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.9x9.7x15x19x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.9x9.7x15x19x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap5.8x$6.07-40%
Forward7x$10.10—
Fair7.4x$7.78-23%
Expensive9.4x$9.89-2.1%
Current9.7x$10.10—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

CCAP's PE is in its expensive range at 9.7x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.0x, in its fair range.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS has the edge over CCAP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

CCAP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Decline
Decline
Weakening
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect CCAP's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over CCAP on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

CCAP Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+22%$12.31
Downside-18%$8.25

Calculated from the latest close: $10.10 on Nov 12.

CCAP trails MS on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

MS has a better modeled risk to reward balance than CCAP, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

CCAP Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $2.30Q1 2024: $2.39Q2 2024: $2.42Q3 2024: $2.47Q4 2024: $2.40Q1 2025: $2.22Q2 2025: $2.09Q3 2025: $1.91Q4 2025: $1.81Q1 2026: $1.78Q2 2026: $1.23Q3 2026: $1.05Forward: $1.45
Q4 2023: $2.30Q1 2024: $2.39Q2 2024: $2.42Q3 2024: $2.47Q4 2024: $2.40Q1 2025: $2.22Q2 2025: $2.09Q3 2025: $1.91Q4 2025: $1.81Q1 2026: $1.78Q2 2026: $1.23Q3 2026: $1.05Forward: $1.45
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.45+38%
Q3 2026$1.05-45%
Q2 2026$1.23-41%
Q1 2026$1.78-20%
Q4 2025$1.81-25%
Q3 2025$1.91-23%
Q2 2025$2.09-14%
Q1 2025$2.22-7.1%
Q4 2024$2.40+4.3%

CCAP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.05 over the past year, against $5.34 in early 2021.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over CCAP on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

CCAP Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2022$6.6M-82%
Q1 2022$23M-3.1%
Q4 2021$18.7M-49%
Q3 2021$22.9M-43%
Q2 2021$35.8M-38%
Q4 2020$36.5M+220%

MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 82% for CCAP versus up 12% for MS.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

CCAP Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $35MQ1 2024: $39MQ2 2024: −$25MQ3 2024: $47MQ4 2024: −$3MQ1 2025: −$15MQ2 2025: $36MQ3 2025: $31MQ4 2025: $23MQ1 2026: −$24MQ2 2026: $10MQ3 2026: $24M
Q4 2023: $35MQ1 2024: $39MQ2 2024: −$25MQ3 2024: $47MQ4 2024: −$3MQ1 2025: −$15MQ2 2025: $36MQ3 2025: $31MQ4 2025: $23MQ1 2026: −$24MQ2 2026: $10MQ3 2026: $24M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$24.4M-21%
Q2 2026$9.8M-73%
Q1 2026-$23.8M-$8.7M
Q4 2025$22.6M+$25.5M
Q3 2025$30.8M-34%
Q2 2025$36.4M+$61.1M
Q1 2025-$15.1M-138%
Q4 2024-$2.9M-108%

CCAP has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

CCAP Total Shares

Q4 2023: 36MQ1 2024: 37MQ2 2024: 37MQ3 2024: 37MQ4 2024: 37MQ1 2025: 37MQ2 2025: 37MQ3 2025: 37MQ4 2025: 37MQ1 2026: 37MQ2 2026: 37MQ3 2026: 37M
Q4 2023: 36MQ1 2024: 37MQ2 2024: 37MQ3 2024: 37MQ4 2024: 37MQ1 2025: 37MQ2 2025: 37MQ3 2025: 37MQ4 2025: 37MQ1 2026: 37MQ2 2026: 37MQ3 2026: 37M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-8.5K shares
1 year-0.6%-215K shares
3 years-0.6%-216K shares
5 years+31%+8.7M shares
Available history+41%+10.6M shares

CCAP has 37M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over CCAP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

CCAP Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 202213.4xHigh
Q1 20227.6xHigh
Q4 20217.1xHigh
Q3 20215.1xHigh
Q2 20213.8xElevated
Q1 20213.2xElevated
Q4 20208.5xHigh
Q3 202014.2xHigh

CCAP's net debt is about 13 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.8 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CCAP.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

CCAP Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.3Neutral
Stochastic34.5Neutral

CCAP's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

CCAP PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricCCAPSector medianRelative
PE9.7x13x26% below
PE %856520 pts above

CCAP has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

CCAP Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$9.259.2% above
20 week MA$10.20.6% below
50 week MA$12.015% below
100 week MA$14.028% below
200 week MA$15.434% below

CCAP has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 34% below its 200-week average.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over CCAP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

CCAP Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$17.1$15.0-12%
2021$15.0$18.0+20%
2022$18.0$13.1-27%
2023$13.1$17.4+32%
2024$17.4$19.8+14%
2025$19.8$14.7-25%
2026 YTD$14.7$10.1-31%

CCAP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 31% so far in 2026.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over CCAP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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