CBU
Community Bank System, Inc.
CBU offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CBU overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CBU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CBU's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CBU.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CBU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $64.49 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $67.52 | +4.7% |
| Current | 15x | $64.49 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $82.32 | +28% |
| Expensive | 21x | $93.38 | +45% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CBU has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CBU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CBU, with profitability holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over CBU on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CBU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.98 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.43 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.31 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.12 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.97 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.88 | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.67 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.61 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.44 | +40% |
CBU's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $4.43 over the past year, up 14% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CBU on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CBU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $231.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $219.8M | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $215.2M | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $217M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $208.1M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $200.5M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $197.3M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $196.3M | +11% |
CBU's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $232M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 35% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | +8.1 points |
CBU has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CBU on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CBU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $106.4M | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $41.4M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $60.3M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $61.6M | +5.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $83.4M | +61% |
| Q2 2025 | $36.4M | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $52M | -33% |
| Q4 2024 | $58.5M | +46% |
CBU has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +17K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -4K shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -806K shares |
| 5 years | -3% | -1.6M shares |
| Available history | +1.1% | +552K shares |
CBU has 53M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $564,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $15.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $44,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $11M |
| Q2 2025 | $42,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $48,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $47,000 |
CBU spent $32M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 186% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over CBU on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
CBU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
CBU has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.5 | Neutral |
CBU's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CBU PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CBU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 12% above |
| PE % | 7 | 63 | 56 pts below |
CBU has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CBU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.9 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $63.8 | 1.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $62.6 | 3% above |
| 100 week MA | $60.4 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $55.9 | 15% above |
CBU has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CBU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $70.6 | $62.6 | -11% |
| 2021 | $62.6 | $74.2 | +18% |
| 2022 | $74.2 | $62.3 | -16% |
| 2023 | $62.3 | $52.1 | -16% |
| 2024 | $52.1 | $62.3 | +20% |
| 2025 | $62.3 | $59.0 | -5.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $59.0 | $64.5 | +9.2% |
CBU has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.