CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
CBOE has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CBOE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CBOE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CBOE.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CBOE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $330 | -10% |
| Forward | 24x | $369 | — |
| Current | 26x | $369 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $386 | +4.6% |
| Expensive | 32x | $448 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CBOE has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CBOE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CBOE, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
CBOE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $15.10 | +7.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.06 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.83 | +51% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.71 | +54% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.42 | +45% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.30 | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.52 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.62 | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.21 | +1.1% |
CBOE's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $14.06 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CBOE on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CBOE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +8.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +14% |
CBOE has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | +6.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 40% | +10 points |
| Q4 2025 | 34% | +6.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | +3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | -3.4 points |
CBOE has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CBOE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $793M | +475% |
| Q2 2026 | -$536.3M | -271% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B | +116% |
| Q4 2025 | $332.1M | +$1.1B |
| Q3 2025 | $137.9M | +$728.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $313.4M | -79% |
| Q1 2025 | $898.2M | +1.1% |
| Q4 2024 | -$734.2M | -$528.1M |
CBOE has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBOE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -200K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -200K shares |
| 3 years | -1.3% | -1.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.1% | -2.3M shares |
| Available history | -6.4% | -7.1M shares |
CBOE has 105M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $56.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $34.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $40.9M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $36.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $30M |
| Q4 2024 | $500,000 |
CBOE spent $132M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 96% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over CBOE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
CBOE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
CBOE has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBOE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 93.4 | Overbought |
CBOE's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 93 (overbought).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CBOE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CBOE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 13x | 102% above |
| PE % | 38 | 63 | 25 pts below |
CBOE is trading at 26x earnings, a 102% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over CBOE on valuation relative to its sector.
CBOE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $318.3 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $298.9 | 23% above |
| 50 week MA | $291.7 | 26% above |
| 100 week MA | $259.2 | 42% above |
| 200 week MA | $214.0 | 72% above |
CBOE has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CBOE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $118.8 | $92.1 | -23% |
| 2021 | $92.1 | $129.0 | +40% |
| 2022 | $129.0 | $126.2 | -2.2% |
| 2023 | $126.2 | $178.6 | +42% |
| 2024 | $178.6 | $197.2 | +10% |
| 2025 | $197.2 | $256.2 | +30% |
| 2026 YTD | $256.2 | $368.9 | +44% |
CBOE has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.