CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over CAVA overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
CAVA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CAVA's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
CAVA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 53x | $28.53 | -50% |
| Fair | 75x | $40.72 | -29% |
| Forward | 84x | $57.35 | — |
| Current | 106x | $57.35 | — |
| Expensive | 147x | $79.57 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAVA's PE is in its fair range at 106x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 84x next year's earnings.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over CAVA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAVA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAVA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.69 | +27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.54 | -53% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.55 | -54% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.52 | -57% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54 | -51% |
CAVA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.54 over the past year, against $1.20 in early 2025.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE has the edge over CAVA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAVA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $356.4M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $368.4M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $438.3M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $275M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $292.2M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $280.6M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $331.8M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $227.4M | +28% |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7% | +2.6 points |
CAVA's operating margin was 4.2% last quarter, down 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over CAVA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAVA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.7M | -661% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.3M | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.5M | +473% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4M | -94% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.2M | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1M | +$9.3M |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
CAVA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -93K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +15K shares |
| 3 years | +278% | +87M shares |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | $1.5M |
| Q3 2023 | $105,000 |
| Q2 2023 | $1.4M |
| Q4 2022 | $250,000 |
| Q3 2022 | $19,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $13,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $629,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $156,000 |
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAVA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAVA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.6 | Neutral |
CAVA's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
CAVA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAVA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 106x | 18x | 489% above |
| PE % | 62 | 36 | 26 pts above |
CAVA is trading at 106x earnings, a 489% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over CAVA on valuation relative to its sector.
CAVA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.7 | 3% above |
| 20 week MA | $61.8 | 7.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $69.9 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $77.2 | 26% below |
CAVA has stronger trend alignment. CAVA is above 1 of 4 weekly averages versus NKE above 1 of 5.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
CAVA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $38.2 | $43.0 | +13% |
| 2024 | $43.0 | $114.4 | +166% |
| 2025 | $114.4 | $60.2 | -47% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.2 | $57.4 | -4.7% |
CAVA has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.