CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ZWS
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation
ZWS has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ZWS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ZWS's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ZWS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $45.17 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $42.43 | -6.1% |
| Current | 26x | $45.17 | — |
| Fair | 40x | $67.68 | +50% |
| Expensive | 48x | $81.44 | +80% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ZWS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ZWS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ZWS, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ZWS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.99 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.71 | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.62 | +60% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.24 | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.12 | +44% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.01 | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.99 | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.92 | +44% |
ZWS has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ZWS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $495.1M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $491M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $433M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $407.2M | +9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $455.4M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $444.5M | +7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $388.8M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $370.7M | +3.9% |
ZWS's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $495M last quarter, up 8.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | +4.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +14 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +4.1 points |
ZWS has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ZWS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.2M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $162.3M | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $46.1M | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $91.7M | +44% |
| Q3 2025 | $101.3M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $110.6M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $42.9M | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $63.6M | +9.3% |
ZWS has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ZWS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ZWS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -673K shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -4.6% | -8M shares |
| 5 years | -32% | -80.5M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -79.3M shares |
ZWS has 168M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago, with $160M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $35.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $49.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | $25M |
| Q3 2025 | $25M |
| Q2 2025 | $32.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $77.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $20.3M |
ZWS spent $160M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 2.9% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ZWS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ZWS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
ZWS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ZWS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.1 | Oversold |
ZWS's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ZWS on valuation relative to its sector.
ZWS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ZWS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 24x | 9.8% above |
| PE % | 18 | 58 | 40 pts below |
ZWS is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ZWS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $46.2 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $47.6 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $47.9 | 5.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.7 | 3.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $36.5 | 24% above |
ZWS has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 24% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ZWS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ZWS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $15.8 | $18.9 | +20% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $36.1 | +91% |
| 2022 | $36.1 | $21.4 | -41% |
| 2023 | $21.4 | $29.4 | +37% |
| 2024 | $29.4 | $37.7 | +28% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $47.8 | +27% |
| 2026 YTD | $47.8 | $45.2 | -5.6% |
ZWS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 5.6% so far in 2026.