CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ZTO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ZTO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
ZTO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ZTO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $20.08 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $25.30 | +26% |
| Fair | 22x | $41.96 | +109% |
| Expensive | 32x | $62.56 | +212% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ZTO has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ZTO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ZTO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ZTO, but weaker profitability.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ZTO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.93 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.72 | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.68 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.62 | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.59 | +1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.71 | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.61 | +1.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.57 | -0.6% |
ZTO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ZTO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +22% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.6B | +18% |
ZTO has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -9.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2024 | 27% | -0.1 points |
ZTO has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ZTO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $285.4M | +$399.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $418.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | -$148.3M | +$212.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $481.9M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | -$113.7M | -191% |
| Q1 2025 | $354.6M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | -$360.4M | +$30.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $467M | +5.9% |
ZTO has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ZTO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.1% | +16.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -17.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -25.2M shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +4.2% | +32.6M shares |
ZTO has 815M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $954M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $766.5M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $188M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $7M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $173.7M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
ZTO spent $954M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ZTO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ZTO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
ZTO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ZTO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.0 | Neutral |
ZTO's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ZTO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ZTO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 24x | 57% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
ZTO has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ZTO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ZTO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.0 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $21.6 | 6.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $22.6 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.8 | 3.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.0 | 8.8% below |
ZTO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 8.8% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ZTO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ZTO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.5 | $28.0 | +19% |
| 2021 | $28.0 | $27.4 | -2.2% |
| 2022 | $27.4 | $26.4 | -3.6% |
| 2023 | $26.4 | $21.3 | -19% |
| 2024 | $21.3 | $19.7 | -7.2% |
| 2025 | $19.7 | $21.3 | +7.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.3 | $20.1 | -5.6% |
ZTO has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 5.6% so far in 2026.