CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
XYL
Xylem Inc.
XYL has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
XYL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
XYL's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
XYL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $94.03 | — |
| Current | 21x | $94.03 | — |
| Cheap | 32x | $143 | +52% |
| Fair | 40x | $182 | +94% |
| Expensive | 62x | $278 | +196% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
XYL has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over XYL on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
XYL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect XYL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
XYL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.62 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.52 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.20 | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.02 | +8.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.92 | +7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.88 | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.84 | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.71 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.65 | +31% |
XYL has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over XYL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
XYL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | -3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +6.5% |
XYL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, down 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +2.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1.9 points |
XYL's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 2.8 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over XYL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
XYL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $242M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $201M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $18M | +$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $460M | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $281M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $207M | -3.7% |
| Q1 2025 | -$38M | -353% |
| Q4 2024 | $475M | +32% |
XYL generated $921M in free cash flow over the past year, about the same as the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
XYL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -3.5M shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -11.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -9.1M shares |
| 5 years | +28% | +51.4M shares |
| Available history | +29% | +51.8M shares |
XYL has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $337M |
| Q2 2026 | $680M |
| Q1 2026 | $563M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $13M |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
XYL spent $1.6B buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over XYL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
XYL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
XYL's net debt is about 1.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
XYL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.7 | Oversold |
XYL's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
XYL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | XYL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 14% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
XYL has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over XYL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
XYL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.5 | 6.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $109.4 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $119.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $124.8 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $120.7 | 22% below |
XYL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 22% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over XYL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
XYL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $78.8 | $100.3 | +27% |
| 2021 | $100.3 | $117.5 | +17% |
| 2022 | $117.5 | $109.7 | -6.6% |
| 2023 | $109.7 | $114.4 | +4.2% |
| 2024 | $114.4 | $117.5 | +2.8% |
| 2025 | $117.5 | $138.8 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $138.8 | $94.0 | -32% |
XYL is down 32% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.