CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over WMS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
WMS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
WMS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
WMS's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
WMS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $100 | -19% |
| Forward | 19x | $124 | — |
| Current | 23x | $124 | — |
| Fair | 25x | $134 | +8.5% |
| Expensive | 43x | $226 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WMS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over WMS on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
WMS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WMS, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over WMS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
WMS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.43 | +22% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.26 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.79 | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.44 | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.01 | +0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.86 | -6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.54 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.76 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.99 | -4.9% |
WMS earned $5.26 per share over the past year, down 10% from the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WMS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $889.4M | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $676.8M | +9.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $693.4M | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $850.4M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $829.9M | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $615.8M | -5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $690.5M | +4.3% |
WMS's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $889M last quarter, up 4.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | -4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.9% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | -3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -4.8 points |
WMS has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
WMS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $156.2M | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.2M | -8.6% |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.1M | -$7.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $183.6M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $176.4M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $222.4M | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.3M | +$24.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $135.7M | -28% |
WMS generated $530M in free cash flow over the past year, about the same as the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
WMS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.6% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -2.5M shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -3.5M shares |
| 5 years | +5.4% | +3.9M shares |
| Available history | +9.4% | +6.5M shares |
WMS has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $139.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $233.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $92M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
WMS spent $465M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over WMS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
WMS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
WMS's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
WMS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.8 | Neutral |
WMS's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
WMS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WMS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 2.5% below |
| PE % | 37 | 58 | 21 pts below |
WMS has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over WMS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
WMS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $128.5 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $136.2 | 9.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $143.7 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $133.9 | 7.8% below |
| 200 week MA | $132.5 | 6.8% below |
WMS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 6.8% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over WMS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WMS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.3 | $81.5 | +107% |
| 2021 | $81.5 | $133.6 | +64% |
| 2022 | $133.6 | $82.8 | -38% |
| 2023 | $82.8 | $140.6 | +70% |
| 2024 | $140.6 | $115.6 | -18% |
| 2025 | $115.6 | $149.6 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $149.6 | $123.5 | -17% |
WMS has finished higher in four of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's down 17% so far in 2026.