CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over WM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
WM offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
WM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
WM's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
WM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $244 | — |
| Cheap | 29x | $224 | -8.4% |
| Current | 32x | $244 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $251 | +2.8% |
| Expensive | 36x | $277 | +13% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WM has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over WM on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
WM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WM, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
WM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.62 | +13% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.62 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.06 | +4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.91 | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.70 | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.36 | -2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.75 | +7.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.64 | +8.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.81 | +20% |
WM has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over WM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.8B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.7B | +4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.3B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.4B | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.4B | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.9B | +13% |
WM's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $6.8B last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +3.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +0.5 points |
WM's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 3.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
WM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $983M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $851M | +126% |
| Q4 2025 | $810M | +105% |
| Q3 2025 | $816M | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $813M | +67% |
| Q1 2025 | $377M | -46% |
| Q4 2024 | $396M | +16% |
WM has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over WM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
WM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -4.5M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -6.1M shares |
| 5 years | -5.3% | -22.2M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -27.7M shares |
WM has 400M diluted shares, down 1.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $580M |
| Q2 2026 | $659M |
| Q1 2026 | $344M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $12M |
| Q1 2024 | $250M |
| Q4 2023 | $312M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over WM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
WM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.7x | Elevated |
WM's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
WM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.9 | Overbought |
WM's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over WM on valuation relative to its sector.
WM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 33% above |
| PE % | 41 | 58 | 17 pts below |
WM is trading at 32x earnings, a 33% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
WM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $225.0 | 8.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $225.4 | 8.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $225.0 | 8.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $224.0 | 9% above |
| 200 week MA | $204.4 | 19% above |
WM has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
WM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $113.9 | $117.0 | +2.7% |
| 2021 | $117.0 | $161.9 | +38% |
| 2022 | $161.9 | $159.2 | -1.7% |
| 2023 | $159.2 | $179.1 | +12% |
| 2024 | $179.1 | $204.0 | +14% |
| 2025 | $204.0 | $221.1 | +8.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $221.1 | $244.1 | +10% |
WM has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.