CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
WCN has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
WCN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
WCN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
WCN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 33x | $194 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $186 | -4.2% |
| Current | 43x | $194 | — |
| Fair | 53x | $236 | +22% |
| Expensive | 79x | $354 | +82% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WCN has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
WCN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WCN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
WCN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.95 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.47 | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +67% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.10 | +69% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.17 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.48 | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.43 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.39 | -19% |
WCN has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WCN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4B | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +11% |
WCN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $2.6B last quarter, up 7.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +27 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | -2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -8.8% | -20 points |
WCN has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
WCN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $397.1M | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $430.9M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $249M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $172.6M | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $380.3M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $352.9M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.1M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $172.2M | -27% |
WCN has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
WCN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -5.7M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -3.6% | -9.3M shares |
| Available history | -4.8% | -12.7M shares |
WCN has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $329.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $330.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $284M |
| Q4 2025 | $63.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $441.8M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
WCN spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over WCN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
WCN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
WCN's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
WCN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 90.8 | Overbought |
WCN's weekly RSI is 70 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 91 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over WCN on valuation relative to its sector.
WCN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WCN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 24x | 80% above |
| PE % | 30 | 58 | 28 pts below |
WCN is trading at 43x earnings, a 80% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
WCN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $173.0 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $169.0 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $166.1 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $174.7 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $165.1 | 17% above |
WCN has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
WCN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.9 | $101.5 | +12% |
| 2021 | $101.5 | $132.2 | +30% |
| 2022 | $132.2 | $133.4 | +0.9% |
| 2023 | $133.4 | $149.3 | +12% |
| 2024 | $149.3 | $171.3 | +15% |
| 2025 | $171.3 | $178.1 | +4% |
| 2026 YTD | $178.1 | $193.9 | +8.9% |
WCN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.