CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
VRSK has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VRSK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
VRSK's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VRSK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $206 | — |
| Cheap | 29x | $191 | -7.4% |
| Current | 31x | $206 | — |
| Fair | 45x | $294 | +42% |
| Expensive | 59x | $386 | +87% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRSK has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VRSK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VRSK, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
VRSK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.42 | +28% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.59 | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.50 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.56 | -4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.48 | -3.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.57 | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.50 | +6.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.84 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.71 | +61% |
VRSK has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VRSK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $809M | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $806.3M | +4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $782.6M | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $778.8M | +5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $768.3M | +5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.6M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $753M | +7% |
| Q4 2024 | $735.6M | +8.6% |
VRSK's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $809M last quarter, up 5.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 45% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 45% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 46% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 44% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +6 points |
VRSK has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
VRSK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $200M | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $297.9M | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $326.4M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $276.1M | +38% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.1M | +40% |
| Q2 2025 | $188.7M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $391M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $200M | +2% |
VRSK has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
VRSK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -10.7M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -16.5M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -33.6M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -37.3M shares |
VRSK has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $170.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $223.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $100M |
| Q1 2025 | $170.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $315M |
VRSK spent $1.9B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 177% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over VRSK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VRSK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9x | Healthy |
VRSK's net debt is about 2.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
VRSK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.3 | Neutral |
VRSK's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over VRSK on valuation relative to its sector.
VRSK PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRSK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 30% above |
| PE % | 23 | 58 | 35 pts below |
VRSK is trading at 31x earnings, a 30% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
VRSK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $188.1 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $188.3 | 9.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $191.7 | 7.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $234.5 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $236.2 | 13% below |
VRSK has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over VRSK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRSK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.6 | $201.2 | +35% |
| 2021 | $201.2 | $225.5 | +12% |
| 2022 | $225.5 | $175.6 | -22% |
| 2023 | $175.6 | $238.9 | +36% |
| 2024 | $238.9 | $277.3 | +16% |
| 2025 | $277.3 | $220.3 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $220.3 | $206.3 | -6.4% |
VRSK has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 6.4% so far in 2026.