CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over VLRS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.
VLRS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VLRS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
VLRS's revenue and cash flow are currently strong, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VLRS PE Valuation
VLRS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
VLRS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect VLRS's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
VLRS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.91 | -$1.37 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.63 | -$1.36 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.07 | -397% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.89 | -182% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.54 | -133% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.27 | -127% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.36 | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.09 | +1457% |
VLRS lost $1.91 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last eight quarters.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VLRS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $859M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $770M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $881.5M | +5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $784M | -3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $693M | -4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $678M | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $834.9M | -7.1% |
VLRS's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 32% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3% | -5.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -12% | -8.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.7% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.3% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.7% | -6.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.2% | -12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5% | -15 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -8.3 points |
VLRS's operating margin was 3.3% last quarter, down 5.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
VLRS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $234M | +178% |
| Q2 2026 | $137.2M | +79% |
| Q1 2026 | $176.3M | +183% |
| Q4 2025 | $165.3M | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $84.2M | -64% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.6M | -75% |
| Q1 2025 | $62.2M | -75% |
| Q4 2024 | $308M | +41% |
VLRS still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $713M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
VLRS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +33.1K shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -1.4% | -1.6M shares |
| 5 years | -1.4% | -1.6M shares |
VLRS has 115M diluted shares, down 1.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
VLRS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VLRS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
VLRS's net debt is about 4.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
VLRS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.6 | Neutral |
VLRS's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
VLRS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VLRS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
VLRS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
VLRS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.70 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.19 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $7.84 | 3.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.95 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $7.92 | 2.5% above |
VLRS has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over VLRS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VLRS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.5 | $11.0 | +4.9% |
| 2021 | $11.0 | $17.7 | +60% |
| 2022 | $17.7 | $8.53 | -52% |
| 2023 | $8.53 | $9.38 | +10% |
| 2024 | $9.38 | $7.63 | -19% |
| 2025 | $7.63 | $9.22 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.22 | $8.12 | -12% |
VLRS has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 12% so far in 2026.