CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over UNP overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
UNP offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UNP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
UNP's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
UNP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $244 | -20% |
| Fair | 22x | $279 | -8.4% |
| Forward | 22x | $304 | — |
| Current | 24x | $304 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $323 | +6.1% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNP has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UNP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UNP, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
UNP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.04 | +9.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.84 | +9.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.36 | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.15 | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.98 | +8% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.77 | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.51 | +8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.10 | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.09 | +6.1% |
UNP has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over UNP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.1B | -0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2B | +2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.2B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.1B | -0.6% |
UNP's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $7.2B last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 40% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 39% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +2.2 points |
UNP has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
UNP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +27% |
UNP has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over UNP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
UNP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +500K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -8.6% | -55.8M shares |
| Available history | -16% | -112M shares |
UNP has 595M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B |
| Q4 2024 | $674M |
UNP has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over UNP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5x | Moderate |
UNP's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
UNP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
UNP's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
UNP PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UNP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.6% below |
| PE % | 74 | 58 | 16 pts above |
UNP has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
UNP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $288.8 | 5.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $291.8 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $267.3 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $247.7 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.5 | 29% above |
UNP has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
UNP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $181.4 | $203.4 | +12% |
| 2021 | $203.4 | $245.6 | +21% |
| 2022 | $245.6 | $209.9 | -15% |
| 2023 | $209.9 | $245.6 | +17% |
| 2024 | $245.6 | $229.9 | -6.4% |
| 2025 | $229.9 | $233.4 | +1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $233.4 | $304.2 | +30% |
UNP has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.