CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over UAL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
UAL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
UAL's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over UAL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UAL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.4x | $58.92 | -47% |
| Fair | 8.3x | $90.43 | -19% |
| Current | 10x | $111 | — |
| Expensive | 11x | $121 | +8.5% |
| Forward | 13x | $111 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UAL's PE is in its expensive range at 10x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13x.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over UAL on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
UAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UAL's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
UAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.29 | -24% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.91 | +9.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.67 | +6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.18 | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.20 | +7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.00 | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.00 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.99 | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.45 | +20% |
UAL has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over UAL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.9B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.7B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.6B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.4B | +4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.2B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.2B | +1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.2B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.7B | +7.8% |
UAL's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $17.9B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.1% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.8% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.2% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7% | -4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.6% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +2.9 points |
UAL's operating margin was 8.1% last quarter, down 1.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over UAL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.7B | -$1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $267M | -71% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | -$604M | -210% |
| Q3 2025 | -$246M | -380% |
| Q2 2025 | $930M | -46% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B | +67% |
| Q4 2024 | $549M | +$3.5B |
UAL usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$1.7B, but it generated $1.1B over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over UAL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
UAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +800K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +500K shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -5M shares |
| 5 years | -0.5% | -1.6M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +67.5M shares |
UAL has 327M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $27M |
| Q4 2025 | $27M |
| Q3 2025 | $21M |
| Q2 2025 | $240M |
| Q1 2025 | $349M |
| Q4 2024 | $80M |
UAL spent $54M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 92% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over UAL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Healthy |
UAL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
UAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.2 | Neutral |
UAL's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
UAL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UAL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 24x | 58% below |
| PE % | 72 | 58 | 14 pts above |
UAL has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
UAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $107.0 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $114.0 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $108.7 | 2.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $99.3 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $74.9 | 49% above |
UAL has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over UAL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.4 | $43.3 | -51% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $44.9 | +3.7% |
| 2022 | $44.9 | $38.4 | -14% |
| 2023 | $38.4 | $41.3 | +7.5% |
| 2024 | $41.3 | $99.7 | +142% |
| 2025 | $99.7 | $114.0 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $114.0 | $111.3 | -2.4% |
UAL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +142% in 2024 to −51% in 2020. It's down 2.4% so far in 2026.