CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TRU
TransUnion
TRU has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TRU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
TRU's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TRU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $65.96 | -19% |
| Forward | 16x | $80.97 | — |
| Current | 20x | $80.97 | — |
| Fair | 46x | $188 | +132% |
| Expensive | 55x | $225 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TRU has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TRU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TRU, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
TRU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.12 | +25% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.11 | +93% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.79 | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.61 | +93% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.32 | +60% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.13 | +85% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.99 | +$2.84 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.87 | +$2.88 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.45 | +$2.52 |
TRU has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TRU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +8.6% |
TRU's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $1.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 23% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +10 points |
TRU's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TRU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $362.6M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $305.7M | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $19M | +$34.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $222.8M | +63% |
| Q3 2025 | $240.4M | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $214.3M | -5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | -$15.9M | -$7.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $136.9M | +31% |
TRU has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TRU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -4.6M shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -800K shares |
| 5 years | -0.3% | -500K shares |
| Available history | +0.4% | +800K shares |
TRU has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $128.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $103.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $12.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $149.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $113.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $33.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $5.4M |
TRU spent $394M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TRU on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TRU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.7x | Elevated |
TRU's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TRU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.4 | Neutral |
TRU's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
TRU PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TRU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 24x | 18% below |
| PE % | 21 | 58 | 37 pts below |
TRU has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TRU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $74.1 | 9.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $77.1 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $76.0 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $81.6 | 0.8% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.1 | 2.3% above |
TRU has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over TRU on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TRU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $85.4 | $101.0 | +18% |
| 2021 | $101.0 | $117.6 | +16% |
| 2022 | $117.6 | $56.5 | -52% |
| 2023 | $56.5 | $68.7 | +22% |
| 2024 | $68.7 | $93.7 | +36% |
| 2025 | $93.7 | $87.4 | -6.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $81.0 | -7.3% |
TRU has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 7.3% so far in 2026.