CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over TRN overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
TRN
Trinity Industries, Inc.
TRN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TRN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
TRN's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TRN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 7.5x | $30.18 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $46.62 | +54% |
| Forward | 16x | $30.18 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $72.30 | +140% |
| Expensive | 27x | $109 | +263% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TRN has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over TRN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
TRN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TRN's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
TRN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | -53% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.00 | +251% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +264% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.12 | +93% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08 | +88% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.14 | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.14 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.62 | +8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.64 | +29% |
TRN has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over TRN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over TRN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TRN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $535.1M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $485.1M | -4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $492M | -16% |
| Q4 2025 | $611.2M | -2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $454.1M | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $506.2M | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $585.4M | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | $629.4M | -21% |
TRN's revenue is recovering but still below its 2019 peak: $535M last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | -8.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | +22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 21% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 55% | +37 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.9 points |
TRN's operating margin was 18% last quarter, down 8.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TRN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.6M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.2M | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $91.5M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $158.6M | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $35.3M | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.9M | -77% |
| Q1 2025 | $67.3M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $180.1M | +137% |
TRN has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over TRN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TRN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -600K shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -900K shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -2.5M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -18.5M shares |
| Available history | -36% | -46.3M shares |
TRN has 81M diluted shares, down 1.1% from a year ago, with $54M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $13.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $19.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $30.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $8.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $13.8M |
TRN spent $54M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 25% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TRN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TRN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
TRN has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TRN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.2 | Neutral |
TRN's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
TRN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TRN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.5x | 24x | 69% below |
| PE % | 5 | 58 | 53 pts below |
TRN has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TRN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $27.4 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $29.9 | 1% above |
| 50 week MA | $31.0 | 2.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $29.9 | 1% above |
| 200 week MA | $28.8 | 4.9% above |
TRN has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
TRN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.7 | $26.6 | +17% |
| 2021 | $26.6 | $29.5 | +11% |
| 2022 | $29.5 | $29.9 | +1.5% |
| 2023 | $29.9 | $26.6 | -11% |
| 2024 | $26.6 | $35.5 | +33% |
| 2025 | $35.5 | $27.5 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.5 | $30.2 | +9.7% |
TRN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.