CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over TREX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
TREX
Trex Company, Inc.
TREX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TREX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
TREX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TREX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 26x | $45.26 | -14% |
| Forward | 26x | $52.81 | — |
| Current | 31x | $52.81 | — |
| Fair | 35x | $60.14 | +14% |
| Expensive | 54x | $93.43 | +77% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TREX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TREX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TREX, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over TREX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TREX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.04 | +18% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.73 | -6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.69 | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.78 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.85 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.74 | -28% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.83 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.09 | +11% |
TREX's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.73 over the past year, against $2.42 in mid-2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over TREX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over TREX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TREX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $359.5M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $418M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $343.4M | +1% |
| Q4 2025 | $161.1M | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $285.3M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $387.8M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $340M | -9% |
| Q4 2024 | $167.6M | -14% |
TREX's revenue has picked up after four years of holding roughly level: $360M last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -4.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2% | -7.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 25% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | -4.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | -7.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.2% | -5.1 points |
TREX's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 4.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TREX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | -4.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $184.5M | -9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | -$141.5M | +$92M |
| Q4 2025 | $22.1M | +$111.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $142.9M | +162% |
| Q2 2025 | $203M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | -$233.5M | -$21.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$89.3M | -286% |
TREX still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $201M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TREX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -558K shares |
| 1 year | -5.1% | -5.5M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -6.9M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -13.8M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -15.2M shares |
TREX has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $70.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $82.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $50.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $25,000 |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $4M |
| Q4 2024 | $50.3M |
TREX spent $259M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TREX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TREX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
TREX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TREX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.3 | Neutral |
TREX's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over TREX on valuation relative to its sector.
TREX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TREX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 27% above |
| PE % | 35 | 58 | 23 pts below |
TREX is trading at 31x earnings, a 27% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TREX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.5 | 8.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $47.0 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $42.8 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $50.4 | 4.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $60.3 | 12% below |
TREX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
TREX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.2 | $86.3 | +91% |
| 2021 | $86.3 | $132.8 | +54% |
| 2022 | $132.8 | $41.9 | -68% |
| 2023 | $41.9 | $82.8 | +98% |
| 2024 | $82.8 | $70.3 | -15% |
| 2025 | $70.3 | $35.7 | -49% |
| 2026 YTD | $35.7 | $52.8 | +48% |
TREX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.