CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over TH overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
TH
Target Hospitality Corp.
TH offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
TH's revenue and cash flow are currently strong, but its profitability and balance sheet are weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TH PE Valuation
TH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect TH to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over TH on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
TH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.64 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.45 | -$0.34 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.37 | -470% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.43 | -200% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.37 | -153% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.11 | -112% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.10 | -91% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | -69% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.70 | -55% |
TH lost $0.45 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over TH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over TH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129.1M | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $85.5M | +39% |
| Q1 2026 | $72.8M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.8M | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $99.4M | +4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.6M | -39% |
| Q1 2025 | $69.9M | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $83.7M | -34% |
TH's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $129M last quarter, up 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3% | +2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | -8.8% | +19 points |
| Q1 2026 | -20% | -18 points |
| Q4 2025 | -19% | -44 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1% | -29 points |
| Q2 2025 | -27% | -57 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5% | -30 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | -12 points |
TH's operating margin was 2.3% last quarter, up 2.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over TH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40.4M | -24% |
| Q2 2026 | $96.2M | +772% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.9M | +$18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $5.7M | -81% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.3M | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $11M | -72% |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.6M | -123% |
| Q4 2024 | $30.2M | -21% |
TH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $149M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over TH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -315K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +121K shares |
| 3 years | -4.9% | -5.2M shares |
| 5 years | +3.2% | +3.1M shares |
| Available history | +2.1% | +2.1M shares |
TH has 100M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $11.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2024 | $23,000 |
| Q1 2024 | $21.2M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | $5.3M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
TH's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.4 | Oversold |
TH's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
TH PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
TH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.5 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $16.9 | 29% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.8 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $10.8 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $11.2 | 6.8% above |
TH has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 6.8% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
TH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.92 | $1.61 | -67% |
| 2021 | $1.61 | $3.31 | +106% |
| 2022 | $3.31 | $15.5 | +369% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $9.73 | -37% |
| 2024 | $9.73 | $9.88 | +1.5% |
| 2025 | $9.88 | $8.48 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.48 | $12.0 | +41% |
TH has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.