CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over TEX overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TEX
Terex Corporation
TEX's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TEX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
TEX's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over TEX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TEX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8x | $15.81 | -73% |
| Forward | 10x | $57.56 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $24.64 | -57% |
| Expensive | 29x | $57.50 | -0.1% |
| Current | 29x | $57.56 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TEX's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TEX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TEX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over TEX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TEX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.57 | +181% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.98 | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.96 | -27% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.09 | -43% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.33 | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.35 | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.68 | -63% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.67 | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.96 | -35% |
TEX's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.98 over the past year, against $7.58 in late 2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over TEX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TEX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +58% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +51% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +7.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | -4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +1.5% |
TEX's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $2.2B last quarter, up 58% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.3% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.4% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4.7% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | 10% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | 0 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7% | -5.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | -6.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3% | -5.2 points |
TEX's operating margin was 8.3% last quarter, down 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TEX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $241M | +85% |
| Q2 2026 | $128M | +64% |
| Q1 2026 | -$57M | $0 |
| Q3 2025 | $130M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | -$57M | -$23.1M |
| Q3 2024 | $116.4M | -16% |
| Q2 2024 | $66.5M | -45% |
TEX has the edge over CAT in the latest year-over-year cash flow comparison.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over TEX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TEX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -200K shares |
| 1 year | +73% | +48.1M shares |
| 3 years | +67% | +45.9M shares |
| 5 years | +61% | +43.1M shares |
| Available history | +59% | +42.2M shares |
TEX has 114M diluted shares, up 73% from a year ago, despite $76M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $72M |
| Q2 2026 | $3M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $23M |
| Q1 2025 | $32M |
| Q4 2024 | $15M |
TEX spent $76M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 8.6% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TEX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TEX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
TEX's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TEX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.1 | Neutral |
TEX's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over TEX on valuation relative to its sector.
TEX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TEX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 24x | 21% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
TEX is trading at 29x earnings, a 21% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TEX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $54.5 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $60.9 | 5.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $60.7 | 5.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $53.4 | 7.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $54.2 | 6.2% above |
TEX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
TEX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $30.1 | $35.9 | +19% |
| 2021 | $35.9 | $43.5 | +21% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $43.1 | -1.1% |
| 2023 | $43.1 | $57.5 | +33% |
| 2024 | $57.5 | $45.2 | -21% |
| 2025 | $45.2 | $55.2 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $55.2 | $57.6 | +4.3% |
TEX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.