CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over SWIM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
SWIM
Latham Group, Inc.
SWIM's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SWIM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
SWIM's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SWIM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 32x | $8.19 | — |
| Cheap | 57x | $4.59 | -44% |
| Fair | 69x | $5.50 | -33% |
| Expensive | 96x | $7.67 | -6.4% |
| Current | 102x | $8.19 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SWIM has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SWIM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SWIM, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
SWIM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.26 | +225% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.08 | +$0.17 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.16 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.07 | +$0.20 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.09 | +$0.24 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.09 | -190% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.11 | -210% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.13 | -425% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.15 | -$0.13 |
SWIM has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SWIM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SWIM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $182.2M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.5M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $117.3M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $100M | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $161.9M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $172.6M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $111.4M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $87.3M | -4% |
SWIM's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $182M last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.6% | -1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | -11% | +4.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.4% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -15% | -5 points |
SWIM's operating margin was 13% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over SWIM on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SWIM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.7M | -5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $48M | +65% |
| Q1 2026 | -$58.2M | -$7.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | +$14.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $45.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.1M | -39% |
| Q1 2025 | -$50.3M | -$10.5M |
| Q4 2024 | -$98K | -100% |
SWIM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $46M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over SWIM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SWIM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +257K shares |
| 1 year | -0.1% | -110K shares |
| 3 years | +4.5% | +5.1M shares |
| 5 years | +6.8% | +7.6M shares |
| Available history | -1.8% | -2.2M shares |
SWIM has 120M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $8M |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $15M |
| Q1 2022 | $257.7M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6,000 |
| Q3 2020 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over SWIM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SWIM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
SWIM's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SWIM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.2 | Overbought |
SWIM's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over SWIM on valuation relative to its sector.
SWIM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SWIM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 102x | 24x | 325% above |
| PE % | 87 | 60 | 27 pts above |
SWIM is trading at 102x earnings, a 325% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
SWIM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.85 | 20% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.62 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $6.30 | 30% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.51 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $5.14 | 59% above |
SWIM has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
SWIM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $27.3 | $24.6 | -9.9% |
| 2022 | $24.6 | $3.12 | -87% |
| 2023 | $3.12 | $2.63 | -16% |
| 2024 | $2.63 | $7.00 | +166% |
| 2025 | $7.00 | $6.34 | -9.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.34 | $8.19 | +29% |
SWIM has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.