CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over SERV overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
SERV
Serve Robotics Inc.
SERV offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SERV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
SERV's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SERV PE Valuation
SERV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SERV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SERV's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over SERV on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SERV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.63 | -$1.27 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.49 | -$1.47 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.05 | -$1.12 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.63 | -$0.56 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.36 | +$0.82 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.02 | +$1.37 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.93 | +$1.19 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.07 | +$0.68 |
SERV lost $2.63 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SERV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SERV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.8M | +313% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.2M | +404% |
| Q1 2026 | $3M | +577% |
| Q4 2025 | $882K | +402% |
| Q3 2025 | $687K | +210% |
| Q2 2025 | $642K | +37% |
| Q1 2025 | $440.5K | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $175.8K | +312% |
SERV has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2158% | +2910 points |
| Q2 2026 | -2040% | +1487 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1735% | +1671 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4569% | +3152 points |
| Q3 2025 | -5068% | -1256 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3527% | -1700 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3407% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -7721% | N/A |
SERV's operating margin was −2158% last quarter, up 2910 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over SERV on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SERV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$44.1M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2026 | -$44.3M | -$22.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$42.9M | -$29.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$46.1M | -$35M |
| Q3 2025 | -$36.5M | -$26.5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$22M | -$15.5M |
| Q2 2024 | -$6.5M | -$6.5M |
| Q2 2023 | -$23.1K | -$7.9K |
SERV has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$177M over the past year, against −$83M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over SERV on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SERV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +8.2% | +6.6M shares |
| 1 year | +42% | +25.6M shares |
| 3 years | +1639% | +81.9M shares |
| 5 years | +1781% | +82.3M shares |
SERV has 87M diluted shares, up 42% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
SERV Net Leverage
SERV's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SERV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.5 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 16.7 | Oversold |
SERV's weekly RSI is 30 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
SERV PE vs Industrials Sector
SERV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has stronger trend alignment. CAT is above 2 of 5 weekly averages versus SERV above 0 of 4.
SERV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.52 | 18% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.45 | 35% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.65 | 62% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.56 | 70% below |
SERV is in a downtrend: it's below all four of its weekly moving averages, and 70% below its 100-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over SERV on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SERV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $5.51 | $16.3 | +196% |
| 2025 | $16.3 | $10.1 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.1 | $2.90 | -71% |
SERV has finished lower in one of the last two years. It's down 71% so far in 2026.