CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ROK
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
ROK has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ROK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
ROK's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ROK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $303 | -25% |
| Forward | 27x | $404 | — |
| Fair | 32x | $396 | -2.1% |
| Current | 32x | $404 | — |
| Expensive | 41x | $512 | +27% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ROK has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ROK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ROK, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ROK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $15.03 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.54 | +63% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.68 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.63 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.75 | +9% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.67 | -7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.52 | -3.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.94 | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.03 | -24% |
ROK has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ROK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ROK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.3B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B | +7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | -5.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | -8.3% |
ROK's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $2.3B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +7.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +8.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +9.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.3 points |
ROK's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ROK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $602M | +49% |
| Q2 2026 | $654M | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $275M | +61% |
| Q4 2025 | $170M | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $405M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $489M | +105% |
| Q1 2025 | $171M | +149% |
| Q4 2024 | $293M | +$328.3M |
ROK has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ROK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ROK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +400K shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3.1% | -3.6M shares |
| 5 years | -4.4% | -5.1M shares |
| Available history | -3.9% | -4.6M shares |
ROK has 112M diluted shares, down 1% from a year ago, with $1.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $502M |
| Q2 2026 | $155M |
| Q1 2026 | $446M |
| Q4 2025 | $153M |
| Q3 2025 | $69M |
| Q2 2025 | $124M |
| Q1 2025 | $132M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
ROK spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ROK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ROK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
ROK's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ROK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.8 | Neutral |
ROK's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ROK on valuation relative to its sector.
ROK PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ROK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 34% above |
| PE % | 52 | 58 | 6 pts below |
ROK is trading at 32x earnings, a 34% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ROK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $423.7 | 4.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $438.7 | 7.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $422.9 | 4.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $368.2 | 9.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $326.1 | 24% above |
ROK has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 24% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ROK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ROK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $203.0 | $248.6 | +22% |
| 2021 | $248.6 | $340.1 | +37% |
| 2022 | $340.1 | $256.7 | -25% |
| 2023 | $256.7 | $310.5 | +21% |
| 2024 | $310.5 | $290.5 | -6.4% |
| 2025 | $290.5 | $399.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $399.8 | $404.2 | +1.1% |
ROK has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 1.1% so far in 2026.