CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ROAD
Construction Partners, Inc.
ROAD has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ROAD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
ROAD's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ROAD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $81.02 | — |
| Current | 32x | $81.02 | — |
| Cheap | 35x | $88.40 | +9.1% |
| Fair | 58x | $149 | +84% |
| Expensive | 79x | $202 | +150% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ROAD has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ROAD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ROAD, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ROAD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.28 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.56 | +88% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.29 | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.21 | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.84 | +40% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.36 | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.16 | -1.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.06 | -2.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.31 | +39% |
ROAD has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ROAD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $999.4M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $769.2M | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $809.5M | +44% |
| Q3 2025 | $899.8M | +67% |
| Q2 2025 | $779.3M | +50% |
| Q1 2025 | $571.7M | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | $561.6M | +42% |
| Q3 2024 | $538.2M | +13% |
ROAD has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.8% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2024 | 8.5% | -0.9 points |
ROAD's operating margin was 11% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ROAD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $30.6M | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.9M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $47.1M | +241% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.9M | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.4M | +135% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2M | +$24.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $13.8M | -59% |
| Q3 2024 | $78.4M | +79% |
ROAD has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ROAD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +13.4K shares |
| 1 year | +1.1% | +615K shares |
| 3 years | +7.6% | +4M shares |
| 5 years | +8.5% | +4.4M shares |
| Available history | +9.4% | +4.8M shares |
ROAD has 56M diluted shares, up 1.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $22.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $12.1M |
| Q4 2023 | $1.3M |
| Q4 2022 | $139,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $39,000 |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ROAD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.2x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 2.2x | Moderate |
ROAD's net debt is about 3.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ROAD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.2 | Oversold |
ROAD's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on valuation relative to its sector.
ROAD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ROAD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 32% above |
| PE % | 14 | 58 | 44 pts below |
ROAD is trading at 32x earnings, a 32% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ROAD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $85.7 | 5.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $98.1 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $109.8 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $104.4 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $75.9 | 6.8% above |
ROAD has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 6.8% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ROAD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ROAD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.0 | $27.6 | +63% |
| 2021 | $27.6 | $29.3 | +6.2% |
| 2022 | $29.3 | $26.9 | -8.4% |
| 2023 | $26.9 | $43.5 | +62% |
| 2024 | $43.5 | $89.9 | +106% |
| 2025 | $89.9 | $113.1 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $113.1 | $81.0 | -28% |
ROAD has finished higher in five of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's down 28% so far in 2026.