CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
RBC has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RBC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
RBC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RBC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 31x | $489 | — |
| Cheap | 41x | $458 | -6.3% |
| Current | 44x | $489 | — |
| Fair | 49x | $548 | +12% |
| Expensive | 67x | $745 | +52% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RBC has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RBC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for RBC, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
RBC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $16.02 | +43% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.18 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.12 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.09 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.53 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.22 | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.97 | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.70 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.29 | +22% |
RBC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
RBC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $524.6M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $519.5M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $518M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $461.6M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $455.3M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $436M | +7.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $437.7M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $394.4M | +5.5% |
RBC has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +3.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +3.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 23% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +1.6 points |
RBC has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
RBC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $85.7M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $146.9M | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $67.5M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $99.1M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $71.7M | +168% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.3M | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $55M | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $73.6M | +3.8% |
RBC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over RBC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
RBC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +869 shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +100K shares |
| 3 years | +8.8% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +23% | +5.9M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +6.7M shares |
RBC has 32M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $900,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $200,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $400,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $8M |
| Q1 2024 | $3.4M |
| Q4 2023 | $600,000 |
| Q3 2023 | $200,000 |
| Q2 2023 | $6.8M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over RBC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RBC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Healthy |
RBC's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.9 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
RBC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.8 | Oversold |
RBC's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over RBC on valuation relative to its sector.
RBC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | RBC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 44x | 24x | 82% above |
| PE % | 29 | 58 | 29 pts below |
RBC is trading at 44x earnings, a 82% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
RBC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $490.2 | 0.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $523.1 | 6.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $535.9 | 8.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $451.1 | 8.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $354.1 | 38% above |
RBC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 38% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
RBC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $181.4 | +14% |
| 2021 | $181.4 | $205.0 | +13% |
| 2022 | $205.0 | $207.5 | +1.2% |
| 2023 | $207.5 | $284.9 | +37% |
| 2024 | $284.9 | $300.2 | +5.4% |
| 2025 | $300.2 | $456.3 | +52% |
| 2026 YTD | $456.3 | $489.2 | +7.2% |
RBC has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.