CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over PYPL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PYPL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PYPL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PYPL.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
PYPL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.9x | $58.30 | — |
| Current | 11x | $58.30 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $76.16 | +31% |
| Fair | 26x | $136 | +133% |
| Expensive | 67x | $351 | +503% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PYPL has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over PYPL on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
PYPL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect PYPL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
PYPL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.87 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.29 | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.33 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.41 | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.97 | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.66 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.45 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.99 | +3.9% |
PYPL has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over PYPL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PYPL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.6B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.7B | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.4B | +7.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.7B | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.4B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.3B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.4B | +4.2% |
PYPL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $8.6B last quarter, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -4.3 points |
PYPL's operating margin was 16% last quarter, down 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over PYPL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PYPL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | +157% |
| Q1 2026 | $903M | -6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $692M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $964M | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | -11% |
PYPL's free cash flow was $6.3B over the past year, up 13% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PYPL.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
PYPL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.7% | -24M shares |
| 1 year | -11% | -102M shares |
| 3 years | -22% | -240M shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -329M shares |
| Available history | -28% | -329M shares |
PYPL has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B |
PYPL spent $6.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 4% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over PYPL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PYPL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
PYPL's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PYPL.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
PYPL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.9 | Neutral |
PYPL's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
PYPL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PYPL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 15% below |
| PE % | 10 | 63 | 53 pts below |
PYPL has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
PYPL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.5 | 3.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $55.5 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $51.5 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.6 | 5.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $64.5 | 9.6% below |
PYPL has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over PYPL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PYPL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $109.4 | $238.6 | +118% |
| 2021 | $238.6 | $192.0 | -20% |
| 2022 | $192.0 | $69.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $69.0 | $61.4 | -11% |
| 2024 | $61.4 | $86.9 | +41% |
| 2025 | $86.9 | $60.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.0 | $58.3 | -2.8% |
PYPL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +118% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 2.8% so far in 2026.