CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over POWW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
POWW
Outdoor Holding Company
POWW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
POWW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
POWW's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over POWW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
POWW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $0.46 | -80% |
| Fair | 21x | $0.64 | -72% |
| Forward | 51x | $2.28 | — |
| Expensive | 74x | $2.23 | -2.1% |
| Current | 76x | $2.28 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
POWW's PE is 76x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
POWW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| -- |
Analysts expect POWW to return to profit, with revenue growing.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over POWW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
POWW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.04 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.03 | +$1.10 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.05 | +$1.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.71 | -$0.19 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.95 | -$0.64 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.07 | -$0.80 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.14 | -$0.98 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.52 | -$0.37 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.31 | -$0.14 |
POWW has returned to profit: it earned $0.03 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over POWW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
POWW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $14.5M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.4M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $12M | -62% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.9M | -62% |
| Q4 2024 | $29.2M | -19% |
| Q3 2024 | $31.4M | -8.6% |
| Q2 2024 | $31M | -9.6% |
| Q1 2024 | $40.4M | -7.5% |
POWW's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $14M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +74 points |
| Q1 2026 | -21% | N/A |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +104 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9% | +46 points |
| Q2 2025 | -51% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | -89% | -84 points |
| Q3 2024 | -40% | -14 points |
| Q2 2024 | -34% | -29 points |
POWW has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
POWW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.8M | +$11.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.9M | -146% |
| Q4 2025 | $5M | +9049% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5M | +$13.3M |
| Q2 2025 | -$7.6M | -$5.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $4.2M | +128% |
| Q4 2024 | $55K | -99% |
| Q3 2024 | -$10.8M | -380% |
POWW's free cash flow has turned positive again: $9M over the past year, against −$14M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over POWW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
POWW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +5.9% | +6.9M shares |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +7.2M shares |
| 3 years | +5.4% | +6.3M shares |
| 5 years | +14% | +15M shares |
| Available history | +173% | +78.6M shares |
POWW has 124M diluted shares, up 6.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $52,828 |
| Q1 2026 | $60,863 |
| Q4 2025 | $82,025 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $171,200 |
| Q1 2025 | $121,768 |
| Q4 2024 | $81,059 |
| Q3 2024 | $94,497 |
POWW has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
POWW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -7.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -215.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -14.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2023 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2022 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2022 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
POWW has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
POWW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 38.9 | Neutral |
POWW's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over POWW on valuation relative to its sector.
POWW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | POWW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 76x | 24x | 216% above |
| PE % | 89 | 58 | 31 pts above |
POWW is trading at 76x earnings, a 216% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x, though its earnings don't support one.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
POWW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.30 | 0.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.25 | 1.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $2.07 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $1.78 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $1.89 | 21% above |
POWW has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
POWW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.08 | $3.64 | +237% |
| 2021 | $3.64 | $5.59 | +54% |
| 2022 | $5.59 | $1.70 | -70% |
| 2023 | $1.70 | $2.10 | +24% |
| 2024 | $2.10 | $1.06 | -50% |
| 2025 | $1.06 | $1.83 | +73% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.83 | $2.28 | +25% |
POWW has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.