CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ONT overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ONT
Onterris, Inc.
ONT offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ONT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
ONT's profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its revenue and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ONT PE Valuation
ONT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ONT on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ONT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ONT's losses to shrink, with revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over ONT on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ONT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.20 | +$0.72 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.23 | +$1.29 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15 | +$2.48 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.14 | +$2.08 |
| Q3 2023 | -$1.90 | -$0.62 |
| Q2 2023 | -$1.84 | -$0.82 |
| Q1 2023 | -$1.86 | -$0.53 |
| Q4 2022 | -$1.62 | -$0.06 |
ONT is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.20 per share over the past year, against $5.55 at its worst in late 2020.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ONT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ONT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ONT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $203M | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $186.7M | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $168.5M | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $193.3M | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.9M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $234.5M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $177.8M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $189.1M | +14% |
ONT's revenue is shrinking: $203M last quarter, down 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.6% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.4% | +5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.4% | +7.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -12% | -6.7 points |
ONT's operating margin was 6% last quarter, up 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ONT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40M | +79% |
| Q2 2026 | $499K | -97% |
| Q1 2026 | -$17.3M | -836% |
| Q4 2025 | $46.5M | +57% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.3M | +118% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.9M | +$31M |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4M | +$30.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $29.7M | +199% |
ONT has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ONT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -681K shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -1.9M shares |
| 3 years | +26% | +7.9M shares |
| 5 years | +45% | +11.8M shares |
| Available history | +82% | +17.1M shares |
ONT has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $20M |
| Q1 2026 | $10M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ONT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ONT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.0x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 12.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 13.1x | High |
ONT's net debt is about 5.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ONT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.5 | Neutral |
ONT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ONT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ONT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ONT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ONT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.2 | 43% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.7 | 30% above |
| 50 week MA | $20.3 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $21.1 | 9.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $28.0 | 18% below |
ONT has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ONT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ONT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.4 | $32.1 | +43% |
| 2021 | $32.1 | $71.6 | +123% |
| 2022 | $71.6 | $43.5 | -39% |
| 2023 | $43.5 | $32.1 | -26% |
| 2024 | $32.1 | $17.5 | -46% |
| 2025 | $17.5 | $26.0 | +49% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.0 | $23.1 | -11% |
ONT's yearly returns have swung widely, from +123% in 2021 to −46% in 2024. It's down 11% so far in 2026.