CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over OESX overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
OESX
Orion Energy Systems, Inc.
OESX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
OESX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
OESX's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
OESX PE Valuation
OESX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
OESX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for OESX, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over OESX on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
OESX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.92 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$1.82 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.02 | +$2.78 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.89 | +$2.71 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.33 | +$0.97 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.87 | +$0.63 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.80 | $0.00 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.60 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.30 | +$3.50 |
OESX lost $0.05 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over OESX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over OESX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
OESX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.7M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.7M | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.7M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $21.1M | +7.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.9M | +2.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.6M | -1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.9M | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.6M | -25% |
OESX's revenue is recovering but still below its 2020 peak: $22M last quarter, up 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.4% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.2% | +13 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3% | +9.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8% | +8.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1.2% | +16 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5.2% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -13% | -20 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.4% | +1.6 points |
OESX's operating margin was −3.4% last quarter, down 2.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over OESX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
OESX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.4M | -319% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3M | +$1.9M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.5M | -$761K |
| Q4 2025 | -$645K | -117% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6M | +217% |
| Q2 2025 | -$570K | +$2.4M |
| Q1 2025 | -$750K | -464% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.7M | +304% |
OESX's free cash flow was −$4M over the past year, against $4M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over OESX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
OESX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.6% | -64.7K shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +599K shares |
| 3 years | +26% | +848K shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +969K shares |
| Available history | +33% | +1M shares |
OESX has 4M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over OESX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
OESX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2022 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2021 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2021 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2021 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
OESX's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
OESX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.3 | Neutral |
OESX's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
OESX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | OESX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
OESX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
OESX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.9 | 40% below |
| 20 week MA | $19.7 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.1 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.5 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $11.9 | 9.9% above |
OESX has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 9.9% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over OESX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OESX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.7 | $100.9 | +191% |
| 2021 | $100.9 | $35.9 | -64% |
| 2022 | $35.9 | $19.5 | -46% |
| 2023 | $19.5 | $8.67 | -56% |
| 2024 | $8.67 | $7.80 | -10% |
| 2025 | $7.80 | $15.8 | +103% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.8 | $13.1 | -17% |
OESX's yearly returns have swung widely, from +191% in 2020 to −64% in 2021. It's down 17% so far in 2026.