CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NVT
nVent Electric plc
NVT has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
NVT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NVT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $116 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $77.33 | -33% |
| Fair | 21x | $88.58 | -23% |
| Current | 28x | $116 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $122 | +5.4% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVT has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over NVT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NVT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVT, but weaker profitability.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
NVT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.49 | +56% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.16 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.67 | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.02 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.31 | +119% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.64 | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.52 | +2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.51 | +2.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.97 | -42% |
NVT has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over NVT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $963.1M | +9.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $809.3M | -7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $752.2M | -13% |
NVT has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -2.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | -3.1 points |
NVT's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 2.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NVT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $265.8M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $162M | +$195.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $49.1M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $165.7M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $200.9M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | -$33.8M | -130% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.1M | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $198.1M | -7.6% |
NVT generated $643M in free cash flow over the past year, up 59% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over NVT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
NVT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +400K shares |
| 3 years | -2.7% | -4.6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.6% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | -5.2% | -9M shares |
NVT has 164M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.8M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $50.4M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $200M |
| Q1 2025 | $53.1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NVT spent $100M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 60% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over NVT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
NVT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.9 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NVT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.8 | Oversold |
NVT's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over NVT on valuation relative to its sector.
NVT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NVT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 24x | 15% above |
| PE % | 79 | 58 | 21 pts above |
NVT is trading at 28x earnings, a 15% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
NVT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $139.6 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $150.1 | 23% below |
| 50 week MA | $138.0 | 16% below |
| 100 week MA | $107.4 | 7.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $83.8 | 38% above |
NVT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 38% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
NVT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.7 | $23.1 | -10% |
| 2021 | $23.1 | $37.4 | +62% |
| 2022 | $37.4 | $38.2 | +2.1% |
| 2023 | $38.2 | $59.1 | +55% |
| 2024 | $59.1 | $69.0 | +17% |
| 2025 | $69.0 | $104.2 | +51% |
| 2026 YTD | $104.2 | $115.5 | +11% |
NVT has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.