CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over NSC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NSC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
NSC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NSC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $216 | -35% |
| Fair | 22x | $268 | -20% |
| Forward | 23x | $333 | — |
| Current | 28x | $333 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $362 | +8.7% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NSC has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NSC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NSC, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
NSC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.19 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.93 | -9.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.72 | -21% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.87 | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.75 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.12 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.81 | +87% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.65 | +136% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.57 | +44% |
NSC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over NSC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NSC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.5B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $3B | -0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | -1.6% |
NSC's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $3.5B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | -5.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | -9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | -5.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 38% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +31 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +11 points |
NSC has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NSC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $736M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $615M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | -$38M | -108% |
| Q4 2025 | $334M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $720M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $602M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $501M | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $276M | +$456M |
NSC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over NSC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
NSC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +500K shares |
| 3 years | -0.8% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -8.6% | -21.2M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -40.4M shares |
NSC has 225M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $5M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $78M |
| Q2 2025 | $208M |
| Q1 2025 | $248M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NSC has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over NSC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NSC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
NSC's net debt is about 2.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NSC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.4 | Neutral |
NSC's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 52 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over NSC on valuation relative to its sector.
NSC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NSC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 24x | 16% above |
| PE % | 77 | 58 | 19 pts above |
NSC is trading at 28x earnings, a 16% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
NSC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $325.1 | 2.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $330.5 | 0.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $312.9 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $285.5 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $257.8 | 29% above |
NSC has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
NSC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $195.2 | $234.4 | +20% |
| 2021 | $234.4 | $287.5 | +23% |
| 2022 | $287.5 | $247.5 | -14% |
| 2023 | $247.5 | $236.4 | -4.5% |
| 2024 | $236.4 | $235.3 | -0.5% |
| 2025 | $235.3 | $291.0 | +24% |
| 2026 YTD | $291.0 | $333.2 | +15% |
NSC has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.