CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over NOC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
NOC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NOC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
NOC's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NOC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $427 | -22% |
| Fair | 17x | $548 | -0.3% |
| Current | 17x | $549 | — |
| Forward | 19x | $549 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $802 | +46% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NOC has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over NOC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
NOC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NOC, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
NOC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.44 | -7% |
| Q3 2026 | $31.65 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.43 | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $31.90 | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $29.08 | +2.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.80 | +72% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.13 | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.34 | +77% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.34 | +109% |
NOC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over NOC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NOC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.1B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.9B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9B | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7B | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.4B | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.4B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.5B | -6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.7B | +0.5% |
NOC's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $11.1B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +14 points |
NOC's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 0.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NOC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $978M | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.8B | -$2M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.2B | +84% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +72% |
| Q2 2025 | $637M | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.8B | -$845M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | +8.3% |
NOC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over NOC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
NOC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | -6.1% | -9.3M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -18M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -26M shares |
NOC has 142M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $68M |
| Q4 2025 | $456M |
| Q3 2025 | $277M |
| Q2 2025 | $411M |
| Q1 2025 | $480M |
| Q4 2024 | $441M |
NOC spent $524M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 67% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over NOC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NOC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
NOC's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NOC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 59.3 | Neutral |
NOC's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 59 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
NOC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NOC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 24x | 28% below |
| PE % | 50 | 58 | 8 pts below |
NOC has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
NOC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $521.5 | 5.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $534.1 | 2.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $588.6 | 6.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $556.4 | 1.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $511.3 | 7.4% above |
NOC has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over NOC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NOC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $346.4 | $299.6 | -14% |
| 2021 | $299.6 | $381.2 | +27% |
| 2022 | $381.2 | $534.8 | +40% |
| 2023 | $534.8 | $468.1 | -12% |
| 2024 | $468.1 | $471.4 | +0.7% |
| 2025 | $471.4 | $577.4 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $577.4 | $549.1 | -4.9% |
NOC has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 4.9% so far in 2026.