CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MTRX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
MTRX
Matrix Service Company
MTRX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MTRX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
MTRX's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MTRX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $9.26 | — |
| Cheap | 18x | $4.65 | -50% |
| Fair | 19x | $4.84 | -48% |
| Expensive | 22x | $5.74 | -38% |
| Current | 36x | $9.26 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTRX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MTRX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MTRX's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MTRX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.67 | +156% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.26 | +$1.12 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.09 | +$0.97 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.54 | +$0.27 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.69 | +$0.53 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.86 | +$0.26 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.06 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.81 | -$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.22 | -$0.52 |
MTRX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MTRX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.4M | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $244.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $206.7M | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $210.5M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $211.9M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $216.4M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $200.2M | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $187.2M | +6.9% |
MTRX's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $219M last quarter, up 3.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2% | +4.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4% | +5.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1% | +2.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -2.6% | +3.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.5% | +6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.4% | -0.5 points |
MTRX's operating margin was 2% last quarter, up 4.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MTRX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$37.7M | -$9.8M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.2M | -127% |
| Q1 2026 | $33.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.3M | -81% |
| Q3 2025 | -$27.9M | -380% |
| Q2 2025 | $38.4M | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.7M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $32.7M | +12% |
MTRX's free cash flow was −$8M over the past year, against $72M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MTRX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +487K shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +1.4M shares |
| 5 years | +7.1% | +1.9M shares |
| Available history | +5.8% | +1.6M shares |
MTRX has 28M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.5M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | $7.1M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
MTRX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -21.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2020 | -10.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2019 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
MTRX has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MTRX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.8 | Oversold |
MTRX's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on valuation relative to its sector.
MTRX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MTRX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 24x | 48% above |
MTRX is trading at 36x earnings, a 48% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x, though its earnings don't support one.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MTRX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.82 | 5.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.8 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.7 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.4 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.9 | 15% below |
MTRX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MTRX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MTRX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.4 | $11.7 | -48% |
| 2021 | $11.7 | $7.14 | -39% |
| 2022 | $7.14 | $6.16 | -14% |
| 2023 | $6.16 | $9.78 | +59% |
| 2024 | $9.78 | $11.9 | +22% |
| 2025 | $11.9 | $11.8 | -1.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.8 | $9.26 | -21% |
MTRX has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 21% so far in 2026.