CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MRTN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MRTN
Marten Transport, Ltd.
MRTN has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MRTN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
MRTN's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue, profitability and cash flow are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over MRTN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MRTN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $2.77 | -77% |
| Fair | 21x | $3.54 | -70% |
| Forward | 28x | $11.93 | — |
| Expensive | 50x | $8.45 | -29% |
| Current | 70x | $11.93 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MRTN's PE is in its expensive range at 70x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MRTN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MRTN, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRTN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.43 | +155% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.17 | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.16 | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18 | -31% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.21 | -36% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.23 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.25 | -53% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.26 | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.33 | -62% |
MRTN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.17 over the past year, against $1.35 in late 2022.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MRTN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $223.2M | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $223.5M | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $203.5M | -8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $210.1M | -8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $220.5M | -7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $229.9M | -6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $223.2M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $230.4M | -14% |
MRTN's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $223M last quarter, up 1.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9% | -2.9 points |
MRTN's operating margin was 1.4% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRTN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.6M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $27.7M | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $33M | -8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6M | -77% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.5M | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.2M | -7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $36.2M | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $23.8M | -37% |
MRTN's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $89M over the past year, down 20% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MRTN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +30K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +137K shares |
| 3 years | +0.3% | +210K shares |
| 5 years | -2% | -1.7M shares |
| Available history | -1.2% | -1M shares |
MRTN has 82M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $16.8M |
| Q1 2022 | $25M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
MRTN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
MRTN has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MRTN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.3 | Oversold |
MRTN's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on valuation relative to its sector.
MRTN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MRTN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 70x | 24x | 192% above |
| PE % | 93 | 58 | 35 pts above |
MRTN is trading at 70x earnings, a 192% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over MRTN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MRTN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.4 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.2 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.1 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.5 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.4 | 27% below |
MRTN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 27% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MRTN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.4 | $17.2 | +19% |
| 2021 | $17.2 | $16.6 | -3.2% |
| 2022 | $16.6 | $20.0 | +20% |
| 2023 | $20.0 | $21.0 | +4.8% |
| 2024 | $21.0 | $15.6 | -26% |
| 2025 | $15.6 | $11.4 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $11.9 | +4.4% |
MRTN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.