CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
MRCY has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MRCY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MRCY's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and cash flow are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MRCY PE Valuation
MRCY has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MRCY Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for MRCY to show an outlook.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MRCY on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MRCY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.48 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.50 | +$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.23 | +$0.88 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.52 | +$1.03 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.56 | +$1.48 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.65 | +$1.73 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.11 | +$1.23 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.55 | -$0.07 |
MRCY is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.08 per share over the past year, against $2.38 at its worst in mid-2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MRCY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MRCY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $253.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $289.8M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $235.8M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $232.9M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $225.2M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $273.1M | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $211.4M | +1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $223.1M | +13% |
MRCY's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $253M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | +10 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.8% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.2% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | -5.6% | +22 points |
MRCY's operating margin was 7.3% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MRCY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRCY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24.4M | -$20M |
| Q2 2026 | $28.6M | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.8M | -108% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.7M | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.4M | +$16.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $34M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.1M | +$49.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $81.9M | +118% |
MRCY usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$24M, but it generated $48M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MRCY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MRCY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.2M shares |
| 1 year | +4.1% | +2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +7.9% | +4.5M shares |
| 5 years | +11% | +6.2M shares |
| Available history | +12% | +6.6M shares |
MRCY has 62M diluted shares, up 4.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $16,000 |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $15,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
MRCY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -8.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -41.6x | Net Cash |
MRCY has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MRCY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.0 | Neutral |
MRCY's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MRCY PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MRCY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
MRCY has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MRCY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 5.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $90.4 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $89.2 | 6.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $72.2 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $54.7 | 53% above |
MRCY has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MRCY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $70.3 | $86.6 | +23% |
| 2021 | $86.6 | $55.9 | -35% |
| 2022 | $55.9 | $43.5 | -22% |
| 2023 | $43.5 | $36.6 | -16% |
| 2024 | $36.6 | $41.9 | +14% |
| 2025 | $41.9 | $74.2 | +77% |
| 2026 YTD | $74.2 | $83.4 | +12% |
MRCY has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.