CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MMS
Maximus, Inc.
MMS has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MMS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable |
MMS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MMS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.4x | $64.87 | — |
| Current | 9.7x | $64.87 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $97.91 | +51% |
| Fair | 19x | $128 | +98% |
| Expensive | 26x | $176 | +171% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MMS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MMS on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MMS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MMS's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MMS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.77 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.72 | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.63 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.52 | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.51 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.42 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.02 | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.64 | +54% |
| Q3 2024 | $4.99 | +90% |
MMS has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MMS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MMS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MMS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | -5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | -4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | +1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.3B | +4.4% |
MMS's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $1.3B last quarter, down 5.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -1.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 8.5% | +0.6 points |
MMS's operating margin was 13% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MMS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$137M | +$61.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $179M | +602% |
| Q4 2025 | -$250.7M | -$147.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $641.8M | +387% |
| Q2 2025 | -$198.2M | -220% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.5M | -76% |
| Q4 2024 | -$103M | -$102.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $131.9M | +17% |
MMS's free cash flow has turned positive again: $433M over the past year, against −$144M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MMS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.8% | -1.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.9% | -3.9M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -8.5M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -9.4M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -11.8M shares |
MMS has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $49.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $114.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $141M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $77.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $228.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $25.8M |
MMS spent $346M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 4.1% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
MMS Net Leverage
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MMS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 78.9 | Neutral |
MMS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MMS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MMS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.7x | 24x | 60% below |
| PE % | 7 | 58 | 51 pts below |
MMS has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MMS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $60.4 | 7.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $58.8 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $67.7 | 4.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $72.0 | 9.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $77.3 | 16% below |
MMS has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 16% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MMS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MMS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.3 | $72.8 | -2% |
| 2021 | $72.8 | $78.1 | +7.2% |
| 2022 | $78.1 | $73.6 | -5.7% |
| 2023 | $73.6 | $83.9 | +14% |
| 2024 | $83.9 | $72.9 | -13% |
| 2025 | $72.9 | $86.9 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.9 | $64.9 | -25% |
MMS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 25% so far in 2026.