CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MLI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
MLI
Mueller Industries, Inc.
MLI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MLI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MLI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over MLI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MLI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.4x | $25.12 | -54% |
| Forward | 12x | $54.84 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $52.03 | -5.1% |
| Current | 14x | $54.84 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $63.33 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MLI's PE is in its fair range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MLI on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MLI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MLI, but weaker profitability.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MLI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.41 | +13% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.90 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.83 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.82 | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.43 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.35 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.15 | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.75 | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.65 | -0.4% |
MLI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MLI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MLI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $962.4M | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $1B | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $923.5M | +26% |
MLI has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -5.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | -5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +5.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +4.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | 0 points |
MLI's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 5.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MLI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315M | +8% |
| Q2 2026 | $190.7M | +8% |
| Q1 2026 | $62.5M | -36% |
| Q4 2025 | $121.4M | +9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $291.8M | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $176.5M | +93% |
| Q1 2025 | $97M | -38% |
| Q4 2024 | $111.2M | -30% |
MLI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MLI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MLI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.7M shares |
| 3 years | -3.3% | -7.6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -7.1M shares |
| Available history | -2.3% | -5.3M shares |
MLI has 220M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $278M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $201.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $243.6M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
MLI spent $278M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
MLI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
MLI has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MLI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.9 | Oversold |
MLI's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MLI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MLI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 24x | 41% below |
| PE % | 56 | 58 | 2 pts below |
MLI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MLI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $57.5 | 4.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $60.4 | 9.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $61.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $52.2 | 5.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $38.8 | 41% above |
MLI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 41% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MLI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MLI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.94 | $8.73 | +9.9% |
| 2021 | $8.73 | $14.6 | +68% |
| 2022 | $14.6 | $14.9 | +2% |
| 2023 | $14.9 | $23.6 | +58% |
| 2024 | $23.6 | $40.0 | +70% |
| 2025 | $40.0 | $59.1 | +48% |
| 2026 YTD | $59.1 | $54.8 | -7.2% |
MLI has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's down 7.2% so far in 2026.