CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MAN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MAN
ManpowerGroup Inc.
MAN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MAN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
MAN's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MAN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $27.13 | -41% |
| Forward | 11x | $46.05 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $44.33 | -3.7% |
| Current | 18x | $46.05 | — |
| Expensive | 69x | $174 | +279% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAN has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MAN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MAN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MAN, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MAN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.31 | +70% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.54 | +$2.99 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.21 | +$2.57 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.36 | -116% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.29 | -110% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.45 | -151% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.36 | -136% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.32 | +119% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.01 | +71% |
MAN has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MAN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MAN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MAN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.9B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | -7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.4B | -5% |
MAN's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 4.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.6% | -2.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.7% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6% | +2.4 points |
MAN's operating margin was 1.7% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MAN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MAN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$16.8M | -138% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.5M | +$198.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$135.3M | +$31.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $168M | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $44.7M | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | -$207.2M | -$57.4M |
| Q1 2025 | -$166.9M | -260% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.3M | +161% |
MAN's free cash flow has turned positive again: $7M over the past year, against −$93M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MAN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MAN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.5% | +700K shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +1.2M shares |
| 3 years | -4% | -2M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -7.1M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -12.2M shares |
MAN has 48M diluted shares, up 2.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $300,000 |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $13.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $25M |
| Q4 2024 | $34M |
MAN has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MAN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MAN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MAN's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MAN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.3 | Neutral |
MAN's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MAN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MAN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 24x | 25% below |
| PE % | 53 | 58 | 5 pts below |
MAN has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MAN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.8 | 5.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $51.9 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $38.9 | 18% above |
| 100 week MA | $42.1 | 9.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $58.3 | 21% below |
MAN's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 21% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MAN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $97.1 | $91.4 | -5.9% |
| 2021 | $91.4 | $95.5 | +4.5% |
| 2022 | $95.5 | $83.8 | -12% |
| 2023 | $83.8 | $79.5 | -5.1% |
| 2024 | $79.5 | $57.2 | -28% |
| 2025 | $57.2 | $29.8 | -48% |
| 2026 YTD | $29.8 | $46.1 | +54% |
MAN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.