CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
LUV has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LUV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
LUV's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over LUV in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LUV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $45.23 | — |
| Current | 22x | $45.23 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $48.84 | +8% |
| Fair | 35x | $70.93 | +57% |
| Expensive | 48x | $97.15 | +115% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LUV's PE is in its cheap range at 22x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LUV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for LUV, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
LUV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.27 | +61% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.03 | +194% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.58 | +126% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.50 | +69% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.79 | +3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.69 | +$0.75 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.70 | +400% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.89 | +39% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.76 | 0% |
LUV has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over LUV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LUV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.2B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B | +7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.9B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.2B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.4B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.9B | +1.6% |
LUV's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $8.4B last quarter, up 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5% | +4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | +8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3% | +1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.5% | +2.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4% | +9.9 points |
LUV's operating margin was 4.5% last quarter, up 4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over LUV on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LUV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$493M | -$102M |
| Q2 2026 | -$288M | -$54M |
| Q1 2026 | $788M | +119% |
| Q4 2025 | -$564M | -3625% |
| Q3 2025 | -$391M | +$13M |
| Q2 2025 | -$234M | +$283M |
| Q1 2025 | $359M | +$1B |
| Q4 2024 | $16M | +$299M |
LUV has burned cash in most quarters: −$557M over the past year, against −$250M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
LUV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | -6.1% | -32M shares |
| 3 years | -23% | -146M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -113M shares |
| Available history | -8.3% | -45M shares |
LUV has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $50M |
| Q3 2025 | $250M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $750M |
| Q4 2024 | $250M |
LUV spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 53% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over LUV on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LUV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
LUV's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
LUV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 59.2 | Neutral |
LUV's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 59 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
LUV PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | LUV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 7.3% below |
| PE % | 15 | 58 | 43 pts below |
LUV has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
LUV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $42.5 | 6.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.4 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $43.2 | 4.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $37.5 | 21% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.8 | 34% above |
LUV has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
LUV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $54.3 | $46.3 | -15% |
| 2021 | $46.3 | $41.9 | -9.5% |
| 2022 | $41.9 | $36.1 | -14% |
| 2023 | $36.1 | $28.9 | -20% |
| 2024 | $28.9 | $34.0 | +18% |
| 2025 | $34.0 | $41.3 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $41.3 | $45.2 | +9.6% |
LUV has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.