CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
KEX
Kirby Corporation
KEX has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
KEX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
KEX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
KEX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $129 | — |
| Current | 19x | $129 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $142 | +11% |
| Fair | 24x | $168 | +30% |
| Expensive | 41x | $286 | +122% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KEX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KEX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KEX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
KEX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.31 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.94 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.50 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.50 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.33 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.39 | +3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.29 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.05 | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.91 | +32% |
KEX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over KEX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
KEX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $977.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $922.4M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $844.1M | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $851.8M | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $871.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $855.5M | +3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $785.7M | -2.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $802.3M | +0.4% |
KEX's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $977M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.3% | -5.4 points |
KEX's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
KEX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73.9M | -54% |
| Q2 2026 | $758K | -97% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.4M | +$91.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $265.2M | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $160.3M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.4M | -75% |
| Q1 2025 | -$42.1M | -200% |
| Q4 2024 | $150.7M | +69% |
KEX generated $389M in free cash flow over the past year, up 34% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
KEX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -677K shares |
| 1 year | -5.3% | -3M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -6.7M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -6.9M shares |
KEX has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $111.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $52.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $101.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $120M |
| Q2 2025 | $31.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $101.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $33.3M |
KEX spent $326M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over KEX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
KEX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
KEX's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
KEX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 40.6 | Neutral |
KEX's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
KEX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | KEX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 24x | 23% below |
| PE % | 6 | 58 | 52 pts below |
KEX has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
KEX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $133.3 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $136.6 | 5.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $133.2 | 3.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $117.7 | 9.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $105.2 | 22% above |
KEX has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 22% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
KEX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.5 | $51.4 | -42% |
| 2021 | $51.4 | $59.7 | +16% |
| 2022 | $59.7 | $64.4 | +7.9% |
| 2023 | $64.4 | $78.5 | +22% |
| 2024 | $78.5 | $106.0 | +35% |
| 2025 | $106.0 | $110.9 | +4.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $110.9 | $128.5 | +16% |
KEX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.