CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
KAI
Kadant Inc.
KAI has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
KAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
KAI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
KAI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $198 | -33% |
| Forward | 22x | $295 | — |
| Current | 30x | $295 | — |
| Fair | 31x | $306 | +3.7% |
| Expensive | 36x | $356 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KAI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KAI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over KAI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
KAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.52 | +36% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.91 | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.30 | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.77 | -6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.65 | -8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.65 | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.98 | -7.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.42 | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.48 | -4.2% |
KAI earned $9.91 per share over the past year, up 15% from the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over KAI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over KAI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
KAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $313.2M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $312.9M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $281.5M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $286.2M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $271.6M | 0% |
| Q2 2025 | $255.3M | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $239.2M | -3.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $258M | +8.1% |
KAI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $313M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -2 points |
KAI's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 1.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
KAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $58.1M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $42.6M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.7M | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.7M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $44.1M | -8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $36.5M | +58% |
| Q1 2025 | $19M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $46.3M | -6.4% |
KAI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over KAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
KAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +10K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +27K shares |
| 3 years | +0.8% | +89K shares |
| 5 years | +1.4% | +161K shares |
| Available history | +3.2% | +372K shares |
KAI has 12M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over KAI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
KAI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
KAI's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
KAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.9 | Neutral |
KAI's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over KAI on valuation relative to its sector.
KAI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | KAI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 24% above |
| PE % | 47 | 58 | 11 pts below |
KAI is trading at 30x earnings, a 24% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
KAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $272.9 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $291.8 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $303.9 | 2.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $314.2 | 6% below |
| 200 week MA | $291.2 | 1.4% above |
KAI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over KAI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
KAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $105.8 | $137.3 | +30% |
| 2021 | $137.3 | $224.2 | +63% |
| 2022 | $224.2 | $177.0 | -21% |
| 2023 | $177.0 | $280.3 | +58% |
| 2024 | $280.3 | $350.8 | +25% |
| 2025 | $350.8 | $293.9 | -16% |
| 2026 YTD | $293.9 | $295.4 | +0.5% |
KAI has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's roughly flat so far in 2026.