CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
IR has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
IR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
IR's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
IR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 22x | $85.31 | — |
| Current | 24x | $85.31 | — |
| Cheap | 32x | $115 | +35% |
| Fair | 42x | $148 | +73% |
| Expensive | 59x | $210 | +146% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IR has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IR, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
IR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.82 | +7.5% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.55 | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.43 | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.48 | -27% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.45 | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.35 | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.28 | -37% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.02 | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.06 | +8.4% |
IR earned $3.55 per share over the past year, up 163% from the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
IR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | +5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +7.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | +2.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +4.2% |
IR's revenue has grown year over year for 18 quarters in a row: $2.1B last quarter, up 5.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 38% | +19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.7 points |
IR has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over IR on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $623.3M | +91% |
| Q2 2026 | $268.9M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $163.4M | -27% |
| Q4 2025 | $461.5M | -6% |
| Q3 2025 | $325.5M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $210.4M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $222.7M | +124% |
| Q4 2024 | $490.9M | -11% |
IR's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $1.5B over the past year, up 21% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
IR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -3.8M shares |
| 1 year | -2.7% | -10.9M shares |
| 3 years | -5% | -20.5M shares |
| 5 years | -7.3% | -30.4M shares |
| Available history | +86% | +179M shares |
IR has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $249.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $89.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $314.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $193.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $500.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $10M |
| Q4 2024 | $62.5M |
IR spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over IR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
IR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2020 | 7.7x | High |
| Q2 2020 | 11.0x | High |
| Q1 2020 | 10.2x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 2.7x | Moderate |
IR's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 7.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
IR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.0 | Neutral |
IR's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over IR on valuation relative to its sector.
IR PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | IR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | Same PE |
| PE % | 2 | 58 | 56 pts below |
IR is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
IR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $79.5 | 7.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $81.2 | 5% above |
| 100 week MA | $81.6 | 4.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $79.8 | 7% above |
IR has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
IR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.0 | $46.0 | +25% |
| 2021 | $46.0 | $59.7 | +30% |
| 2022 | $59.7 | $52.3 | -12% |
| 2023 | $52.3 | $77.3 | +48% |
| 2024 | $77.3 | $91.6 | +18% |
| 2025 | $91.6 | $81.3 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $81.3 | $85.3 | +5% |
IR has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.