CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
ICFI has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ICFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ICFI's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ICFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 11x | $82.22 | — |
| Current | 15x | $82.22 | — |
| Cheap | 16x | $87.25 | +6.1% |
| Fair | 25x | $135 | +64% |
| Expensive | 32x | $171 | +109% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ICFI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ICFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ICFI's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ICFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.49 | +41% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.32 | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.84 | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.63 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.95 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.29 | -7% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.74 | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.82 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.82 | +34% |
ICFI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ICFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $470.5M | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $474.5M | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $437.5M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $443.7M | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $465.4M | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $476.2M | -7% |
| Q1 2025 | $487.6M | -1.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $496.3M | +3.8% |
ICFI's revenue is down over the past year, though its latest quarter was up: $470M last quarter, up 1.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.4% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.5% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.3% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.4% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.9% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | -0.4 points |
ICFI's operating margin was 9.3% last quarter, up 1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ICFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.6M | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $94M | +103% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6M | +$30.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $68.7M | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.8M | +105% |
| Q1 2025 | -$36.5M | -$21.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $89.5M | -13% |
| Q3 2024 | $20.4M | -2.6% |
ICFI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ICFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +7K shares |
| 1 year | -2.5% | -471K shares |
| 3 years | -4.8% | -919K shares |
| 5 years | -5.3% | -1M shares |
| Available history | -6.1% | -1.2M shares |
ICFI has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $379,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $15.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $199,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $29,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $39.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $16.8M |
ICFI spent $49M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ICFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Moderate |
ICFI's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ICFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.9 | Neutral |
ICFI's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ICFI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ICFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 24x | 36% below |
| PE % | 13 | 58 | 45 pts below |
ICFI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ICFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $86.8 | 5.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $85.4 | 3.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $80.3 | 2.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $86.7 | 5.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $110.7 | 26% below |
ICFI's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 26% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ICFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ICFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.2 | $74.6 | -19% |
| 2021 | $74.6 | $101.1 | +35% |
| 2022 | $101.1 | $98.6 | -2.5% |
| 2023 | $98.6 | $134.1 | +36% |
| 2024 | $134.1 | $118.5 | -12% |
| 2025 | $118.5 | $86.2 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.2 | $82.2 | -4.6% |
ICFI has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 4.6% so far in 2026.