CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over IBM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
IBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
IBM's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
IBM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $194 | -21% |
| Forward | 19x | $245 | — |
| Current | 21x | $245 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $274 | +12% |
| Expensive | 46x | $538 | +120% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IBM has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over IBM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
IBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect IBM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
IBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.06 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.75 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.29 | +83% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.33 | +94% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.17 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.38 | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.18 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.83 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.43 | -21% |
IBM has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over IBM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
IBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.2B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.9B | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.7B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.3B | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $17B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.5B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.6B | +1% |
IBM's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $17.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -2.8 points |
IBM's operating margin was 15% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
IBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.9B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | -9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | +5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4B | -3.3% |
IBM has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over IBM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
IBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +260K shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4.6M shares |
| 3 years | +3.2% | +29.9M shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +47.6M shares |
| Available history | +2.1% | +19.6M shares |
IBM has 954M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over IBM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
IBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4x | High |
IBM's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
IBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.8 | Neutral |
IBM's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
IBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 31 | 35 | 4 pts below |
IBM has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
IBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $238.6 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $239.3 | 2.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $256.6 | 4.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $258.5 | 5.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $212.3 | 15% above |
IBM has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over IBM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
IBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $129.3 | $119.2 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $119.2 | $130.6 | +9.6% |
| 2022 | $130.6 | $141.7 | +8.4% |
| 2023 | $141.7 | $163.6 | +15% |
| 2024 | $163.6 | $222.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $222.8 | $305.1 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $305.1 | $244.7 | -20% |
IBM has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 20% so far in 2026.