CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over HY overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HY
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc.
HY offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
HY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HY PE Valuation
HY has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 109x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HY to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over HY on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
HY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.25 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$7.26 | -6150% |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.56 | -638% |
| Q1 2026 | -$5.59 | -200% |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.40 | -142% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.12 | -99% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | -88% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.59 | -35% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.04 | +11% |
HY has swung to a loss: it lost $7.26 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over HY on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $827.4M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $812.9M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | $795.2M | -13% |
| Q4 2025 | $923.2M | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $979.1M | -3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $956.6M | -18% |
| Q1 2025 | $910.4M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +3.9% |
HY's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $827M last quarter, down 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | -2.3% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5% | -5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4% | -7.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2% | -3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9% | -9.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3% | -5.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3% | -1.7 points |
HY's operating margin was −1.1% last quarter, down 1.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over HY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.5M | -45% |
| Q2 2026 | $2M | -87% |
| Q1 2026 | -$42.7M | +$4.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $32.9M | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.6M | -62% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.1M | +$29.8M |
| Q1 2025 | -$47M | -415% |
| Q4 2024 | $62.8M | +116% |
HY still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $5M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +15K shares |
| 1 year | +1.2% | +210K shares |
| 3 years | +3% | +514K shares |
| 5 years | +6.6% | +1.1M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +1.2M shares |
HY has 18M diluted shares, up 1.2% from a year ago, despite $10M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $700,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $9M |
| Q3 2025 | $100,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $100,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $23.1M |
HY spent $10M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 65% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
HY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 15.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
HY's net debt is about 16 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.4 | Oversold |
HY's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HY PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
HY has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over HY on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.7 | 6% below |
| 20 week MA | $32.2 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $33.9 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $37.6 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $46.5 | 40% below |
HY is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 40% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over HY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $58.4 | $58.2 | -0.3% |
| 2021 | $58.2 | $41.6 | -29% |
| 2022 | $41.6 | $25.8 | -38% |
| 2023 | $25.8 | $62.2 | +141% |
| 2024 | $62.2 | $50.2 | -19% |
| 2025 | $50.2 | $31.0 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $31.0 | $27.9 | -9.9% |
HY has finished lower in five of the last six years. It's down 9.9% so far in 2026.