CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
HWM has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HWM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
HWM's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over HWM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HWM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 35x | $177 | -21% |
| Forward | 35x | $223 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $221 | -1.1% |
| Current | 44x | $223 | — |
| Expensive | 58x | $297 | +33% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HWM's PE is in its fair range at 44x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HWM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for HWM, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
HWM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.31 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.11 | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.64 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.31 | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.71 | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.55 | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.41 | +51% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.06 | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.81 | +54% |
HWM has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HWM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | +9.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +9.2% |
HWM has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | +7.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | +5.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +4.7 points |
HWM has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HWM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $562M | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $479M | +39% |
| Q1 2026 | $359M | +168% |
| Q4 2025 | $530M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $423M | +161% |
| Q2 2025 | $344M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $134M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $378M | -6.2% |
HWM has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HWM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HWM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -5M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -15M shares |
| 5 years | -7.8% | -34M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -63M shares |
HWM has 400M diluted shares, down 1.2% from a year ago, with $1.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $500M |
| Q2 2026 | $300M |
| Q1 2026 | $300M |
| Q4 2025 | $200M |
| Q3 2025 | $200M |
| Q2 2025 | $175M |
| Q1 2025 | $125M |
| Q4 2024 | $190M |
HWM spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 88% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HWM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HWM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
HWM's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HWM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.0 | Neutral |
HWM's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over HWM on valuation relative to its sector.
HWM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HWM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 44x | 24x | 81% above |
| PE % | 51 | 58 | 7 pts below |
HWM is trading at 44x earnings, a 81% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
HWM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $215.5 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $246.8 | 9.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $241.8 | 7.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $201.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $133.0 | 68% above |
HWM has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
HWM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.1 | $27.4 | -12% |
| 2021 | $27.4 | $31.1 | +14% |
| 2022 | $31.1 | $39.1 | +25% |
| 2023 | $39.1 | $54.1 | +39% |
| 2024 | $54.1 | $111.2 | +106% |
| 2025 | $111.2 | $211.2 | +90% |
| 2026 YTD | $211.2 | $223.1 | +5.6% |
HWM has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.