CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over HRI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
HRI
Herc Holdings Inc.
HRI offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HRI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
HRI's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over HRI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HRI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $44.73 | -73% |
| Forward | 16x | $167 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $70.08 | -58% |
| Expensive | 31x | $122 | -27% |
| Current | 43x | $167 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HRI's PE is in its expensive range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HRI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HRI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over HRI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HRI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.66 | +175% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.88 | +$6.41 |
| Q2 2026 | $1.68 | +98% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.06 | -101% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.03 | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.53 | -121% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.85 | -93% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.48 | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.40 | -39% |
HRI has returned to profit: it earned $3.88 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HRI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HRI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $861M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $951M | +14% |
HRI has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.8% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2% | +6.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2% | -1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | +5.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9% | -14 points |
| Q2 2025 | -4.6% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9% | -11 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.5% | -30 points |
HRI's operating margin was 8.8% last quarter, up 5.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HRI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $335M | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $273M | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $236M | +71% |
| Q4 2025 | $281M | -5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $315M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $194M | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $138M | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $297M | +800% |
HRI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HRI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HRI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.6% | +200K shares |
| 3 years | +18% | +5M shares |
| 5 years | +9.8% | +3M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +4.4M shares |
HRI has 34M diluted shares, up 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $13M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $63M |
| Q1 2023 | $44M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HRI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HRI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 22.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 31.8x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 35.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 65.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 39.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 12.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6x | High |
HRI's net debt is about 18 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from more than 20 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HRI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.8 | Neutral |
HRI's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over HRI on valuation relative to its sector.
HRI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HRI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 24x | 78% above |
| PE % | 89 | 58 | 31 pts above |
HRI is trading at 43x earnings, a 78% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
HRI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $141.4 | 18% above |
| 20 week MA | $147.4 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $141.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $141.5 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $142.0 | 17% above |
HRI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
HRI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.1 | $66.6 | +35% |
| 2021 | $66.6 | $158.5 | +138% |
| 2022 | $158.5 | $129.5 | -18% |
| 2023 | $129.5 | $148.9 | +15% |
| 2024 | $148.9 | $189.6 | +27% |
| 2025 | $189.6 | $156.5 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $156.5 | $166.5 | +6.4% |
HRI has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.