CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HLIO
Helios Technologies, Inc.
HLIO has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HLIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
HLIO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HLIO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $47.69 | — |
| Current | 20x | $47.69 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $50.21 | +5.3% |
| Fair | 37x | $88.21 | +85% |
| Expensive | 53x | $126 | +163% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HLIO has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HLIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HLIO, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
HLIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.30 | +40% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.36 | +134% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.14 | +106% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.82 | +64% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.45 | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.01 | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.04 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.11 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.17 | +2.6% |
HLIO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HLIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $229.7M | +4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $231.9M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $228.4M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $210.8M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $220.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $212.5M | -3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $195.5M | -7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $179.5M | -7.2% |
HLIO's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $230M last quarter, up 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +4.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +4.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.4% | +1.3 points |
HLIO's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HLIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $32.4M | +74% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.6M | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.2M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $40.5M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.6M | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.6M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.9M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.3M | +14% |
HLIO has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HLIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -200K shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -300K shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -100K shares |
| 5 years | +1.9% | +615K shares |
| Available history | +3.1% | +985K shares |
HLIO has 33M diluted shares, down 0.9% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HLIO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
HLIO's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.9 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HLIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 24.8 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 3.3 | Oversold |
HLIO's weekly RSI is 25 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HLIO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HLIO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 24x | 16% below |
| PE % | 12 | 58 | 46 pts below |
HLIO has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HLIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.1 | 24% below |
| 20 week MA | $71.6 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $70.2 | 32% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.0 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $53.9 | 11% below |
HLIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over HLIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HLIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.5 | $52.8 | +16% |
| 2021 | $52.8 | $103.1 | +95% |
| 2022 | $103.1 | $54.8 | -47% |
| 2023 | $54.8 | $45.4 | -17% |
| 2024 | $45.4 | $45.0 | -0.8% |
| 2025 | $45.0 | $55.5 | +23% |
| 2026 YTD | $55.5 | $47.7 | -14% |
HLIO has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.