CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over HII overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
HII offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
HII's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HII PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $215 | -30% |
| Fair | 15x | $285 | -7.6% |
| Forward | 15x | $308 | — |
| Current | 17x | $308 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $346 | +12% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HII has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over HII on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
HII Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HII, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
HII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.05 | +7.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.60 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.80 | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.39 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.39 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.48 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.36 | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.88 | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.96 | -18% |
HII has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HII on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.5B | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.4B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.5B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | -2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | -5.4% |
HII's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $3.5B last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.1% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.3% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.9% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.7% | -6.2 points |
HII's operating margin was 7% last quarter, up 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over HII on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $425M | +2556% |
| Q2 2026 | -$150M | -121% |
| Q1 2026 | -$464M | -$2M |
| Q4 2025 | $516M | +86% |
| Q3 2025 | $16M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $730M | +$829M |
| Q1 2025 | -$462M | -$185M |
| Q4 2024 | $277M | -36% |
HII generated $327M in free cash flow over the past year, down 42% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HII on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +200K shares |
| 3 years | -1% | -400K shares |
| 5 years | -1.7% | -700K shares |
| Available history | -4.3% | -1.8M shares |
HII has 40M diluted shares, up 0.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $35M |
| Q2 2024 | $65M |
| Q1 2024 | $62M |
| Q4 2023 | $38M |
| Q3 2023 | $21M |
| Q2 2023 | $7M |
| Q1 2023 | $9M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HII on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
HII's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.3 | Neutral |
HII's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HII PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HII | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 24x | 31% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
HII has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
HII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $282.2 | 9.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $290.1 | 6.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $335.8 | 8.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $287.3 | 7.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $262.5 | 17% above |
HII has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over HII on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $251.1 | $165.4 | -34% |
| 2021 | $165.4 | $182.2 | +10% |
| 2022 | $182.2 | $230.1 | +26% |
| 2023 | $230.1 | $259.6 | +13% |
| 2024 | $259.6 | $190.4 | -27% |
| 2025 | $190.4 | $351.1 | +84% |
| 2026 YTD | $351.1 | $308.3 | -12% |
HII has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 12% so far in 2026.