CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HAYW
Hayward Holdings, Inc.
HAYW has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HAYW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
HAYW's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over HAYW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HAYW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.5x | $7.41 | -56% |
| Forward | 18x | $16.69 | — |
| Current | 21x | $16.69 | — |
| Fair | 25x | $19.73 | +18% |
| Expensive | 37x | $29.13 | +75% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HAYW's PE is in its fair range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HAYW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HAYW, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
HAYW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.91 | +16% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.78 | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.74 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.73 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.68 | +26% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.63 | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.59 | +44% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.56 | +51% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.54 | +46% |
HAYW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HAYW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HAYW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $260.1M | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $318.4M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $255.2M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $349.4M | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $244.3M | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $299.6M | +5.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $228.8M | +7.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $327.1M | +17% |
HAYW's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $260M last quarter, up 6.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | +3.5 points |
HAYW's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HAYW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43M | -51% |
| Q2 2026 | $311.9M | +67% |
| Q1 2026 | -$157.8M | -$146.4M |
| Q4 2025 | -$35.8M | +$34.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $87.2M | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $187.3M | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.4M | +$71.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$70.4M | -$29.7M |
HAYW still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $161M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HAYW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -4.3M shares |
| 1 year | -2.6% | -5.9M shares |
| 3 years | -2% | -4.3M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -27.3M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -15.2M shares |
HAYW has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $51M |
| Q2 2026 | $58.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $68,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $80,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $993,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $118,000 |
HAYW spent $119M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HAYW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HAYW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
HAYW's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HAYW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 89.4 | Overbought |
HAYW's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HAYW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HAYW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 11% below |
| PE % | 34 | 59 | 25 pts below |
HAYW has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
HAYW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.7 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $14.9 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $14.8 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 19% above |
HAYW has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
HAYW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $17.0 | $24.6 | +44% |
| 2022 | $24.6 | $9.38 | -62% |
| 2023 | $9.38 | $13.6 | +45% |
| 2024 | $13.6 | $15.4 | +14% |
| 2025 | $15.4 | $15.9 | +3.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $16.7 | +4.7% |
HAYW has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.