CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GWW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
GWW has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GWW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
GWW's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GWW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $951 | -37% |
| Fair | 26x | $1,200 | -20% |
| Forward | 29x | $1,503 | — |
| Expensive | 32x | $1,460 | -2.8% |
| Current | 33x | $1,503 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GWW has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GWW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GWW, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GWW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $51.08 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $45.53 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $39.23 | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $37.19 | -4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $35.40 | -8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $35.66 | -3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $39.41 | +8.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $38.95 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $38.71 | +6.8% |
GWW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GWW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GWW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.2B | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $5B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.7B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.4B | +4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | +6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.6B | +5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.3B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.2B | +5.9% |
GWW's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $5.2B last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -4.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1 points |
GWW's operating margin was 16% last quarter, up 5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GWW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $546M | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $333M | +65% |
| Q1 2026 | $569M | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $269M | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $339M | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $202M | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $521M | -3.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $170M | -64% |
GWW has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GWW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GWW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -800K shares |
| 3 years | -6% | -3M shares |
| 5 years | -9.6% | -5M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -7.8M shares |
GWW has 47M diluted shares, down 1.7% from a year ago, with $986M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M |
| Q2 2026 | $224M |
| Q1 2026 | $237M |
| Q4 2025 | $247M |
| Q3 2025 | $291M |
| Q2 2025 | $226M |
| Q1 2025 | $281M |
| Q4 2024 | $462M |
GWW spent $986M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 22% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GWW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GWW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
GWW's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GWW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 77.5 | Neutral |
GWW's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over GWW on valuation relative to its sector.
GWW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GWW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 24x | 37% above |
| PE % | 89 | 58 | 31 pts above |
GWW is trading at 33x earnings, a 37% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GWW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,349.5 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,338.2 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,220.2 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $1,117.5 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $985.1 | 53% above |
GWW has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GWW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $337.5 | $415.6 | +23% |
| 2021 | $415.6 | $503.0 | +21% |
| 2022 | $503.0 | $565.1 | +12% |
| 2023 | $565.1 | $828.7 | +47% |
| 2024 | $828.7 | $1,069.0 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1,069.0 | $1,024.3 | -4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,024.3 | $1,502.6 | +47% |
GWW has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.